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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (45478)	5/30/1998 1:55:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

On the contrary, I think you are missing the point! First I was not discussing the stock, I was discussing the growth of the company. A forecast is an hypothesis. It may be generated by sophisticated econometric models, but it is not reality. Comparing a forecast to past performance obscures the fact that the Dell forecasts in the past have significantly underestimated what the company actually did. Why would you believe that currently generated forecasts are more accurate than the ones produced in the past? This is a variant of the law of averages type of argument, and is just as logically flawed. In looking at what I believe to be a tremendous gap between hypothesis (the forecasts) and the data (actual growth) I believe a logical mind would question the validity of the forecasts. The question I raised was how good a predictor of future performance were those estimators? I submit that they were pretty dismal. I do expect Dell's growth to slow, but I think it is silly to compare a forward looking growth estimate with past performance. TTFN, CTC