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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: don pagach who wrote (4026)	5/30/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 9980

don, Many thanks for posting the Barron's article. Albert Edwards is an interesting guy. What the article did not mention is that he was severely publicly censored by Asianophiles as well as leaders in Asia in his earlier predictions and even received some threats. Best, Stitch

To: don pagach who wrote (4026)	5/30/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 9980

>>Ultimately, it will probably happen in the U.S. U.S. corporations, which are levered up to eyeballs, will suffer a loss of confidence as well.<< Can't happen here! <VBG>

To: don pagach who wrote (4026)	5/30/1998 7:36:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 9980

>>And it will happen, because the business cycle hasn't been abolished.<< No, things are different now. We are making such great strides in productivity! <VBG>

To: don pagach who wrote (4026)	5/30/1998 7:43:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 9980

>>What has taken off is bank lending to directly purchase bonds and bank lending to securities dealers -- which is up 50%, year-on-year, in the U.S.<< Nice statistic!

To: don pagach who wrote (4026)	5/30/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 9980

Strange conclusion to his remarks. Comments?

To: don pagach who wrote (4026)	6/1/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: HB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Just read the hardcopy of the Albert Edwards interview article in Barrons and was about to post that all should read. The guy seems RAZOR SHARP (and I remember reading him on Asia and... well, maybe he kept me from investing more earlier, but I wish I'd given his remarks more weight -G-). Seriously, the guy seems like one smart MF (Motley Fool, of course). What really struck me here were: 1)agreement with the thesis so often put forth on this thread re liquidity fueling the bubble. What was interesting was his view that this is relatively recent... the chart showing the surge in bank lending, almost entirely due to lending to finance securities-related stuff, was an eye-opener. The funny thing is this may show up as increased money demand in a "standard postKeynesian synthesis" macroeconomic view of things, leading to complacency because accomodating it is not, theoretically, going to stimulate the real side of the economy. At some point, though, this may move from accomodating a (possibly justified?) increase in asset values, to supporting a bubble... Greenspan is obviously agonizing over where that point is, and whether's he's already gone past it... 2)the view, based on analysis of freight rates (I have no idea if his analysis is good), that exports from Asia are now surging big-time. Someplace today I read a comment about how the wave of Asian imports people have been bracing for hasn't come.... when I read things like that, I wonder about some market participants' understanding of TIME.... it takes awhile to get trade financing somewhat back on track after a currency debacle, and it will take even more time to get exports ramped up in areas where capacity isn't already there... and it is also true that that requires investment and financing that will be slowed down by recessions for awhile... The exports are going to be cheap, and they're going to be there... but they may not stimulate Asian economies as much as some might hope.... IMF experience with adjustment programs on a more country-by-country basis, especially in Latin America where exports had been neglected rather than emphasized, may not transfer well to Asia... there may be floods of exports but they will be cheap, with beggar-thy-neighbor problems across the region. But a contractionary trade shock is obviously developing, and denying it now as it's about to continue is silly. If you think Asia is going into a prolonged recession (and I do) you may want to think twice about being long oil, but perhaps the export boom from Asia will help offset lowered domestic Asian demand? Cheers, HB PS... How about a poll: who on this thread is buying the Eurobubble? If you're interested in that aspect of the article, it was discussed at length in the previous Edwards interview in Barron's some months ago... I was struck by it, but have remained indecisive.