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To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (12411)	5/30/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: PaulM	Respond to of 116895

Ron, we are all arm chair economists here, but mostly: 1. Global stock markets will be very high--after unprecedented runs in fact--coming into the next down turn. 2. Debt--corporate, govt and consumer--will also be very high coming into the downturn. So high that bankruptcies have been at record levels during the UPSIDE of the cycle. 3. Confidence in the $ will be at all time highs, even though periodic global currency crises must eventually exert downward pressure on the $ as well. 4. In any decade, I view the question of how nasty a recession will be the same as asking: "to what extent will expectations be disappointed." An argument can be made that huge distortions currently exist in the ecomony.

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (12411)	5/30/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116895

"alarm that Russia could default on its $145 billion debt to foreigners" washingtonpost.com "nobody's going to let Russia go down the tubes"

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (12411)	5/31/1998 5:58:00 AM
From: Alex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116895

Hi Ron. I am not an economist and we are just chatting here. The next recession\correction may only differ in degree IMO. From what I have read the p\e on the S&P was just recently over 28, an all time high. Dividend yields, I believe, are at or near all time lows (at least well below the norm). Margin accounts are at 50 year highs according to a recent article that I've read. Ten trillion dollars in derivatives come due this year alone (talk about your crazy aunt in the attic). Should the trade imbalance ($\yen situation) be allowed to continue deteriorating, the end result will be magnified. The Y2K problem could be the smoking gun that either starts or prolongs the correction (this is totally out of my field - just parroting some of what I read.). These are just some of my thoughts on the current market and what may or may not cause a correction. All of it, or none of it, could come to pass. Regards