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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (5034)	5/31/1998 10:23:00 PM
From: RCMac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Rman and V1 In addition to the reasons given by Rick Harmon and V1 that ICOS is probably not a good short in the near term, let me add: As biotech gets drawn to the notice of more investors, the combination of (1) the guy that built Amgen ("the most outstanding success story in biotech . . ." etc. etc.), (2) a well-known smart guy named Gates, and (3) the spillover from the Viagra hype, will be very appealing to the investor who doesn't know much science or otherwise have much basis for judging biotech stocks. And not just the rankest of amateurs will find ICOS interesting. ICOS meets some of the rules of thumb nonscientist investors use to assess biotech stocks: in addition to well-regarded management, it has a diversified handful of potential products for multiple indications involving some fairly large markets, some of the products are well along in clinical trials, it has a couple of big pharma partners, etc. This is not a single-product company years from approval, cf. ENMD, and in any event is not up anywhere nearly as outrageously as ENMD was that Monday. (These considerations led me to keep ICOS when I could have sold it for 23 or so Friday am, whereas I was out of my 500 shares of ENMD like a shot [at 76, my timing not quite as good as Peter Suzman's] on ENMD Monday). While I agree that ICOS will likely in a few months retreat to 18 or maybe even 14, it is probably in for a good bounce here, before the air hisses out of the stock (which I think is probably a long-term winner). If you do decide to cover, can I suggest that it not be an artificial one at the Friday closing price? Several items of post-closing news are (1) Rathman's appearance on CNBC before Monday market opening (probably between 7:30 and 8:00 EDT), (2) that ICOS got mentioned (briefly, with reference to a possible improvement on Viagra) on Friday's Wall Street Week, and (3) various other weekend mentions in the press and online, e.g., cbs.marketwatch.com And you folks' record is impressive enough without gingering up the record with a highly artificial sale at Friday's last price. You will take a bit of a hit getting out Monday, but that's like investing in the "real world." -- RCM