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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (19786)	5/31/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: Roy F	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

techweb.com

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (19786)	5/31/1998 11:08:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

NEC announces 300mm fab in CA and is reportedly ready to announce a 2nd 300mm fab in Japan: techweb.com

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (19786)	5/31/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

You may certainly be right and certainly the history of DRAM screw-ups by the companies involved is on your side. I am one of those who has never and will never invest in MU. Just a believer that with commodities they lose a lot in a down cycle and they make a lot in an up cycle. Though there is a lot of capacity on line, things like Windows 98 and Windows NT next year especially usually accelerate demand + the Koreans are really suffering + the proliferation of new consumer electronic devices that might need some form of DRAM (not sure if it will be DRAM or some other form of memory) + mainly, the lack of capacity upgrades should bring capacity in line with supply over the next few quarters. [In 1996 esp. the Koreans continued to build capacity thinking they could beat everyone to the punch - that is not happening today, so things are different - the DRAM guys are paying the price of all that overbuilding and the semi-equips are likewise suffering now.] I have not looked at their financials but you are right with the kind of cash flow burn you are talking about they better get a recovery next year! I have heard of many DRAM guys pulling out (yes & others continuing to build - ouch!) and certainly not many of the incumbents are in a position to invest aggressively (hence semi-equips suffer) but the thing is that this is an industry-wide issue and to my knowledge this screws virtually everyone not nec. just MU. However someone has to be doing DRAM (unless new players come in - possible - but there will be a time lag - construction to production - so not much of an immediate threat) in the next few years and so I suspect many of the current producers will make it. (BTW reading through last few posts can't confirm the 20% but I have seen on Techweb that MU is the low cost producer.) shane.