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Technology Stocks : Altera -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (1730)5/31/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: William L. Molair II  Respond to of 2389
 
Smith Barney issued a research note last week on ALTR reiterating their 1H recommendation. Said the quarter was proceeding nicely.



To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (1730)5/31/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Stu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2389
 
The rumor doesn't seem like a problem. Isn't it a little early for a warning? You would think that management would at least hope that they could correct the problem in the next two months.

As for the 10-Q:
I don't see much need for concern. Yes, the mainstream and mature product lines are not producing as well as they have in the past, but I think that the newer products will keep up. The market is shrinking, but ALTR appears to be gaining share. If customers stop buying mainstream and mature products, I think it is because they are moving to the newer products and not competitor's products. I see an even balance of mainstream loss to newer product gain. This should keep earnings flat. I doubt there will be much revenue growth.

However, the flat earnings are already priced in. I think that $35 is an appropriate level and see things coming back on Monday. I certainly don't see more of a drop. At the low estimate of $1.51 for this year and an upbeat P/E of 23, the shares should stick around $34.73. And I don't think that a P/E of 23 is very rich for this company. Especially since things would only need to be half as good as they have been to produce that kind of multiple.

Well, forget my two cents. I feel like that's only worth about one cent today.