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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (4048)	5/31/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Mike: Which came first--how much of the surplus is taxes from cap gains? Maybe if the market crashes, the surplus dries up, and we wont have a recession hehe. I doubt much of the surplus is due to CAP gains. We may see more of this this year when people use the better treatment of long term capita gains to change their positions. In the past, these surpluses were not due to Cap gains either. In any event, I do not wish to stop this string of "goldilock" situation when we can continue without a recession for seven years running, and going..going... I cannot find a single positive attribute in a recession. "I'd bet there have been long periods of recession which have little to do with the federal budget." You are absolutely right. We did not have many period of budget surpluses either. Most recessions are either cyclical or induced by unexpected shock (Oil embargo for instance) to the systems which forces rapid reallocation of resources. Our economy is a very big ship and it cannot turn on a dime. The tax change treatment of real estate investment in the early 80' was such a dislocation that landed us the banking and S&L crisis. It was completely unnecessary. If they wanted to close loopholes, fine, but these things must be done gradually, grandfathering prior business decisions based on prior tax laws. As for "aggregates" they mean exactly what they are "the sum total of", so aggregate demand is the total demand in the economy, and "aggregate wishful thinking" is equivalent to "irrational exuberance" (VBG). By the way, it is also a term used in construction (little to medium size accumulation of stones), and even in geology, but I must admit my English is not geological enough to be sure on this point. I hope, some of our "less English Challenged" posters will help me in this regard (G). Zeev

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (4048)	5/31/1998 8:48:00 PM
From: GuinnessGuy	Respond to of 9980

Mike, -you wrote- "Finally, in these discussions, you always hear the jargon "aggregate", Zeev used it in the passage I quoted. What is that? Sorry, guess I should have taken an econ class back in school." aggregate demand The sum of all personal consumption expenditures, business expenditures, and government spending. investorwords.com BTW -- There is a site that aggregates (g) a whole bunch of english language dictionaries together with specialized dictionaries and acronym dictionaries that I find indispensable. Check out: onelook.com I just counted the number of dictionaries consulted during a search and it is up to a phenomenal 279!!! onelook.com At one time I suggested to the folks at SI to incorporate this dictionary into their site but didn't get any response. The guy who runs 'Onelook' had no objection. I wonder if it's worth another try? Craig