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Biotech / Medical : Pharma News Only (pfe,mrk,wla, sgp, ahp, bmy, lly) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marshall Teitelbaum who wrote (137)	6/1/1998 6:57:00 AM
From: Muthusamy SELVARAJU	Respond to of 1722

Did some careful analysis of the EPS estimates over the weekend, with most recent PFE First Call report, 1997 Annual Report and latest S&P Report on the stock. Was amazed to find that most analysts are still forecasting c. 0.35-0.42 for Q2 and $2.15 for the F/Y ending Dec98. Only one analyst has gone out on a limb and f'cast 0.55c for Q2, which compares with 0.53c for Q1 and 0.35c last year. My own 'feel' is that we are staring at c. 0.55c for Q2 and at least $2.20 for the year, what with Viagra, Lipitor, Aricept and Trovan all being substantial earnings additive products coming on stream through the full fiscal year 1998. Significantly, none of the above drugs are 'displacement' products, as they do not appear to cannibalise any of their current portfolio of more recently launched blockbuster drugs. From a cost standpoint, I expect them to have established a normal run rate from their tremendous sales force investments thru 1997, and therefore the current gross margin +80% contribution to be substantially EPS additive, providing a nice direct boost to their bottom line. If they do achieve their declared strategy to divest their hospital products (stents, etc) division before end-Q2, that is sure to be another positive. Bottom line, and extending their current PE to prospective earnings, I would expect the stock to run up to $150 before the summer is over, as long as company avoids any public debacles over Viagra....like the deaths. In fact, if the FDA does come out and declare Viagra clear, then the upward move (especially with miserable May month behind us!!) should continue, with the momentum to test the $130 level soon and trending to $150 as July earnings season approaches. I dipped quite heavily into $130 July calls on the above theory. Anyone has an insight into what Christina Heuer thinks of PFE, especially in terms of her earnings estimates for PFE, or for that matter, her PFE stock price projection? Her opinions are pivotal to further stock appreciation. Regards,