Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (4209)	6/2/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: moat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78526

I'm agree with you 100%. I am tired of people saying they don't understand companies such as Microsoft (even though I am a fan of Buffett and Berkshire). Buffett gets a break because he is over age 65. 80% of msft's sales are from Windows and Office (1/2 each). Both are pure monopolies. Both with huge critical mass and momentum. It's like English, the language we all use to conduct business on this globe. It's not difficult to understand it would be very hard to replace English (e.g. with French). You don't need to have a technology background to understand that Windows is a platform that all PC software builds on (just as all books in this country is written using English). You don't need to understand technology to understand that humans have a need to send Word and EXCEL attachments with our e-mails. Come on you value guys, get with it! Even if you don't understand the java fuss I would suggest it's entirely possible to monitor how Windows is doing against java-vm .... just monitor the unit-count on a quarterly basis ... Windows is such a big ship... it's possible to see it turn (north or south). A similar business example in the past was Novell. Years ago you had to be brain dead to not see NT was going to kill Netware way before it happened. Netware was built on top of DOS. DOS was replaced-- game over. Java-vm is msft's only real threat today --Ballmer and Gates said so themselves--the company's strategy has always been "embrace and extend"; so far that has always worked... we'll see. Lastly, I don't agree with your statement about Intel. Intel's chips can/is being cloned. You can't clone Microsoft's Windows/Office. (just watch the ASP trend!) The intrinsic value of Microsoft is way way north of today's $85/sh price. The company has a long long way to go. Just think ... about everyone is sure the company will have a run-rate eps of $3/sh in 18 to 24 months. Will have $10/sh in cash then. The growth picture will still be great then as it is today. Product pipeline is fine: W98, Office2000, NT5, SQL7, W2000, CE is doing great, web apps are just beginning to grow for real, PC prices are going down further. Lots of insider ownership. Management seems fine. This is a no-brainer. Just my 2 cents.