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Technology Stocks : Answer Think (ANSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amsterdam who wrote (3)	6/1/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 55

I understand your concerns but I don't think they apply in ANSR's case. 1) it's not apparent to me that the foundation of a consulting firm is firmly in place. The entire reason they left KPMG was because they leave behind the old way of thinking and are purely focused on a structurally different economy. Either they are right or they aren't about this being the correct strategy but that is an execution issue more than anything. 2) the essence of a consulting firm is long term customer relationships with repeatable business They have all their KPMG contacts and with some of the big rainmakers at ANSR, they can eat away at KPMG's installed base starting Jan 1, 1999. 3) it's very possible that some of the rainmakers that came over from KPMG will make a lot of quick money on this deal, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of executive turnover after the first year. I doubt that, what are they going to do - just retire. Management consultants are workaholics by nature. Some might ease up as they get older but I doubt they cash out after just laying the foundation of a successful company down. All of these are risks and are certainly not lay-ups but you are being awfully cynical here. The numbers are $160mm in 1999 and $.41 (excluding any acquisitions they do). I am sure Morgan Stanley left at least a dime of upside so let's say $.50. Give it a CATP multiple (CATP is currently at 51x 1998) and that gets you a $25 stock this time next year.