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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (9473)	6/1/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Larry I originally got into Dell at a split adj 10, and sold @ 47.5, got back in @ 50 and sold @ 65, back in @ 68 and sold @ 92. I have always been bullish on Dell, but alwayds thought the stock pricey. I agree there is more room to grow, but...... there is also room to fall. When a company grows as big and fast as Dell has, it is hard to sustain 50-100% grrowth. Can Dell continue, in the face of changing market and economic conditions? That, my friend is the 100B$ question. Dave

To: larry who wrote (9473)	6/3/1998 10:21:00 AM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Larry: If Dell is capped at 100B at 7% share, that implies the aggregated market cap of all PC manufacturers is about 1400B (1.4T). In the context of the entire US annual economic activity, that looks relatively outlandishly high. I would not want to take a significant short position in Dell, attempting to guess the apogee in stock price, though. It might make sense to short the manufacturers in aggregate, though, using the tools of the NAIC (National Association of Investors Corp) in reverse. Competitive forces should dictate two things for Dell--Dell's style of business can be learned elsewhere and Dell's margins as a captive assembler should not exceed the underlying component manufacturers, in a near term timeframe of just a few years or less. Best regards, m