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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (19810)	6/2/1998 4:32:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

In the 1985-87 slump, AMAT hit its low for the cycle in 1987, near the end of the cycle. In the 1990-1991 mini-slump, AMAT again hit its low for the cycle near the end of the cycle. It is possible that in the 1996-1999 slump AMAT will have hit its low for the cycle in 1996 in anticipation of the slump, or history may repeat itself. We will have to wait and see. I should add that purchasers who bought in Jan. 85 got the stock at a price of about $.80 adjusted for splits, so they did fine over the years despite the fact that two years later the stock was down 25% to $.60. Purchasers who bought in Jan 1990 got the stock at $1.80, and have done fine despite the fact that a year later the stock could be had for 23% less at $1.39. Carl