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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (45773)	6/1/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<< Earnings are decelerating -- quarter-to-quarter, this company's growing at a 30% clip,>> What? This is wrong. No offense, but you have not done your research. Also, Go look at Dell's (historical) 1st Quarters vs. the rest of the year. 1Q and 2Q are the slowest for the (entire) PC industry historically. 2nd half there is (historically) a large growth increase over 1st half. These cycles can not be ignored in any meaningful discussion of computer stocks.. Please, please go do a little more homework before posting.....

To: Paul Shread who wrote (45773)	6/1/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

Paul, there is a difference between saying analysts think the company will grown at 30% over the next 3-5 yrs. and saying <<Earnings are decelerating- quarter-to-quarter, this company is growing at a 30% clip">>...It was this statement that I went after, it is this statement that is incorrect. The company grew sales over 50% last quarter (vs. previous yr) and EPS 63%. That is a far cry from 30% Also, The analysts have been consistently wrong about Dell..They consistently have had to raise their sales/earnings/EPS each quarter.....The 30% growth rate that you are basing your analysis on is the aggregate of a bunch of folks who have a pretty back track record on Dell... <<In my opinion, this stock has to go back to 62-63. "Even if DELL earns $2.00 this year, it's still trading at 40 times earnings." Getting $ 2.00 this year (going forward) assumes an EPS growth rate of only 5%, quarter-to-quarter, going forward, something like .46, .49, .51, .54= $2.00 This would be a dramatic slowdown from the growth exhibited during Dell's history. I would love to hear about reasoning as to why/how this is going to happen....Which product lines are going to slowdown and by how much? Maybe you did do your homework, but your conclusions are falty (based on the evidence you presented). If you could get more specific about where this growth slowdown is coming (Desktop? Europe? Enterprise?) I would be more open to your arguments.... Sounds like you are only looking at lines on a page to me.....