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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: waverider who wrote (23223)6/1/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: Elmer  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Diamond, your point on the trend is very well taken. I think the bottom line is it depends on your long-term view for the sector and the specific company and/or your investment philosophy/strategy. I am not very knowledgeable on TA or the short-term psychology of the market, I therefore rely solely on long-term fundamentals and current valuations. Based on this strategy, I am very long on this sector and NE in particular. I think you could possibly end up being right in the short-term but that is not my time horizon and I would be afraid to be short with the OPEC meeting just around the corner. While there definitely could be some more downside risk in these stocks in the near term, I think the risk/reward profile of many of the stocks are just to compelling to not have some significant exposure in the oilfield service stocks.

I wouldn't care one bit if you were right over the short term and I was right over the long term and we both end up winning; however, I just feel, if you truly believe in the long-term fundamentals of this industry, by shorting these stocks, you are investing against your beliefs and going with your emotions . But, maybe there are people who can make short-term calls successfully. Unfortunately, I am not one of those people.

FWIW, Paine Webber did not upgrade NE, they initiated coverage of the stock and therefore will be pushing their clients into the stock and not out of the stock.

Good Luck,

Elmer