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To: Ben Antanaitis who wrote (3179)6/2/1998 7:29:00 PM
From: Marty  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8218
 
Ben, I've been thinking about your response and had the flash that the Max Pain point would be different every day... actually it would change with each new trade, whether it was to open or close. I can appreciate that it is much too much trouble to keep figuring it all the time but ... would you agree that the percentage change in the Max-Pain point compared to the actual percentage gain in the price would have a high degree of predictive value? For example, say in a 24 hour period the Max Pain point went up 3% and the price of the stock only 1%, wouldn't that mean that big money (presumably better informed money) was betting on a higher price? It could give you more confidence in your option trading.

Incidently, I went short June 120 calls for a practical test on the Max Pain indication that the closing price will be just short of that point. We'll see what happens.