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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (9514)	6/1/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<<although its hard to grasp what sort of absurd logic investors use to justify their actions these days.">> Not to tell anyone what they already know, but after selling off, the banks moved up because rates are testing 5.75% again, and w/ Asia everyne feels safer the fed will not raise, maybe even cut rates. No rocket science there. Dave

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (9514)	6/1/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho, Fleck made an interesting comment about it seeming that people were trapped in their positions. Considering that the Nasdaq is now back to its October highs after a steady deterioration of prices, it seems very likely that a lot of investors feel almost trapped. Taking a loss is a hard thing to do and for much of the mid-cap universe, and even many large caps, people are staring at paper losses. There has been no surprise event to cause them to sell out, so they just keep waiting for the bull to return. They try to add more on the dips, but the rebounds get smaller with each dip, only to be followed by further deterioration. There hasn't even been a good panic sell-off to give them an "all-clear". This slow death of a market, coupled with strength of bonds and defensive stocks as well as the economic evidence, seems (to me) like the way a bull market should end. If most participants feel trapped in their positions, hoping for that missing bull to wander home and stubbornly refusing to sell because "the bull market's not over", it's only a matter of time before the feeling evolves to hoping just to get even so they can get out. Such an experience will, IMO, have a much more lasting impact than any quick, sharp break that can be attributed to panic by those less savvy. BTW, the bank stocks looked mixed to me today, in spite of strong bonds. I wonder if they are "decoupling" from interest rate sentiment and may begin to react more to weaker corporate earnings in anticipation of a general economic downturn. No evidence, just a thought. Regards, Bob

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (9514)	6/4/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Richie3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hi everybody, I am following LHSG. A recent article in Barrons highlighted the following interesting points: the company has a thin float 26.5 million shares outstanding, of which some 64% were owned by insiders. 1st quarter revenues did gain 59% year over year but they came just 2.5% above the prior's quarter (PE is about 200) The company saw its receivables soar by USD 9.5 million or 25% in the January-March period (reminds me of the creative accounting done by AOL). Some USD 3.6 million of that increase -or more than four times its sequential increase in revenues- was in the UNBILLED RECEIVABLES category. At 60 the stock market valuation is 50% bigger than most estimates of the size of the entire market where it competes. Company's insiders (in quantities qualifying as big blocks) and management were selling stock aggressively when the shares were almost 50% below current levels. Technically the uptrend has stopped, support is at 54.6, bollinger is narrowing. Is anyone thinking of shorting it? Feedback appreciated, Regards, Richie3

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (9514)	6/10/1998 9:33:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho, So many things happening so few posts. My telephone lines at home have been screwed with static so I havn't been able to log on and post all those interesting Asia stories. The telephone company was out my way 3 days last week. Well on to other things. HK down 5% last night as well as all of Asia. Chinese should be devaluing the Yuan soon. G7 said they were not there to support the Yen or to give aid to Russia. My take is we will let Japan try to export their way out of trouble which would have the same effect on our economy (slowing our exports ie;our economy)as a rate hike. If Russia can't get aid they'll flood the market with cheap commodities (oil, nickle, gold, paladium, etc.)good for inflation. Logic would tell us that if the largest creditor nation (Japan) is being bought up by the corporations largest debtor nation (US) at bargain basement prices with money borrowed from Japanese pensioners something has to give. PE's 28x's, BV 6x's, Div yields 1.4%, 41% of american in stocks. The collapse in equities over the next 18 months will have the analysts scratching their heads for the next 2 generations. "Take a LEAP into the next millenium" and protect yorself from this "Beanie Babie market".