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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (4216)	6/2/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78572

Jeffrey, >Jurgis, do I take it from your philosophy that you are a >trader in tech stocks, not an investor? The philosophy was a humorous one but with a grain of truth. I am not a trader as in TA trader, I am forced to be fundamentals trader by the volatility of tech market. ;-) >Using Intel and Microsoft as examples, >there have been lots of times where your questions > would have applied over the last 10 > years, but they have never been good long term > sells - unless you are a trading genius > and always get it right. Yes, but Intel and Microsoft look like counterexamples. There are few long-term holds in tech area: ADBE, CSCO, HWP, with a stretch IBM. Even they cannot compare with KO in longevity. As Mr. B says: "KO's gonna be here in 50 years." I would not vouch for any of tech companies to be here in 20 years. Sure, they may be here as fallen giants (IBM). In addition, almost no tech stocks have positive free cash flows - a requirement in Mr. B's long-term hold world. Moreover, Intel, Microsoft and CSCO are bad counterexamples. I would have never owned them because of high valuations. I recognize them as "Gorillas", but I can't justify buying a "gorilla" at high price even if it's "gorilla". I had a "gorilla" discussion with a friend long before the book was published. And I still could not come up with reasonable buy-sell strategy. "Dollar-cost-averaging buy and sell never" might work for gorillas, but I don't like it. My real philosophy is "Superstocks" which calls for trading because you sell or lighten-up if "high" valuation is reached. I would be happy to be long term investor, but when ASYT goes from ~$10 to ~$50 in a year, I have to sell some. :-) And now I'm back in the ride. I held some ASYT through the $50 down to $16 again, but was that wise? I don't know. ;-) Good luck Jurgis