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To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (56621)	6/2/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Since Intel now will be making the ALPHA chips, it would seem that this could be one reason not to rush Merced to Market and fits your hypothesis. Do you know the status of Intels redoing Dec's Plant to make it state of the art and where DEC's later generation Alphas (21364?) development stand and how this all fits into Microsoft's NT5 development/launch? Rich

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (56621)	6/2/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jules - I think Paul is talking more about 'the straw that broke the camel's back'. I don't know a lot about Intel's internal issues but I know that the complex job of determining what partner support will be available on what date has also been moving more slowly than Intel wants. Issues like what modes will be supported. IA32 native and IA64 native are certain, but what about mixed modes like merced-native 32 bit in a 64 bit environment? Software partners are taking longer to come to terms with these issues than originally anticipated. Also the resolution of the FTC issues around the DEC Alpha deal may have played a role. If Alpha provides a viable development platform for much of the 64 bit transition work, then it becomes a little less important to have prototype Merced systems available early to drive the transition to 64 bit capable software. Intel may also have a better idea of where CPQ and MSFT intend to go with Alpha and Merced in the overall 64 bit picture, which again may have changed some of the weighting in the decision matrix. So then the issues around the internal capability to assure quality take on a new importance. It becomes a lot more important to have a quality design than to get to market early. I also believe that the process improvements which would have driven higher clock rates and improved speed will continue on the same calendar as before, so that the later portions of the Merced / McKinley product curve will not be delayed in performance terms, Paul can correct me if I'm wrong. If this is true than Intel really only gives up the very low volume front end of the curve, with no change to the later uptake in the market. Based on this, I tend to agree with you, this was probably a smart decision, and sooner or later the market will figure that out.

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (56621)	6/2/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: Jeff Fox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Jules, re:"how on one day someone at Intel wakes up and realizes that the CAD processors aren't going to be enough to make the Merced schedule on time" Delays accumulate daily, but big changes happen as a result of midpoint program reviews. Obviously Intel just completed the most major these for Merced. With the change Intel is telling us that the Merced program is now VERY solid. It is disclosing that the "experimental" programs are done; the physics, architecture and tool developments are complete. Intel is now operating on an detailed plan with estimates based on reliable expectations. It takes a ton of courage to reset a major schedule, but it is FAR better to do it rather than suffer month to month schedule "creep". By doing the review the **real issues may be addressed properly.** The world will get a much better Merced product as a result of the change. Jeff

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (56621)	6/2/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Jules - Re: "One would think, if your hypothesis were correct, that we would have had much earlier warning signs. " My "hypothesis" was my analysis of the recent information I have obtained regarding the Merced schedule slip. As for the "delay" being made for strategic reasons, I don't know if that is true but somehow I agree that, overall , it will eventually benefit Intel - by staggering introduction dates of its new processors - IA32 and IA64. Paul

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (56621)	6/2/1998 9:16:00 PM
From: Barry A. Watzman	Respond to of 186894

Just a comment about the realization that on a project (any project) some target date isn't going to be met. Such a realization often occurs only when people who have different, sometimes unrelated pieces of the project, and who possibly work in different cities, get together for a "project meeting" and begin comparing and matching notes. Note, by the way, that in some cases some of the people with critical information may not even be Intel employees; there are vendors and subcontractors on big projects, and any of the parties (either Intel people or outside contractors) might have a reason to deny the truth (even to themselves) or even a vested interest in outright concealment of the truth, or a portion thereof. Even when the parties with all of the relevant facts get together, however, the conclusion that "we are not going to make our target date" is not always explicitly obvious in an instant. Sometimes, it takes a couple of days of thinking about what was said by the various participants at the meeting for a critical mass of people to reach the conclusion that the schedule has slipped (on other occasions, by the way, it IS crystal clear). And then, even when a critical mass of people begin to suspect this, it may take a while for the formal project schedule to be officially adjusted. And then, when it is officially adjusted, in a situation as large as the Merced project, it could take a couple of weeks to deceide when and how to break the news to the world at large. In all many weeks might pass between the time when it should have been clear (to a non-existant entity with ALL of the facts) that a schedule was slipping, to the point when it a public announcement was made and the situation acknowledged.