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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kemble s. matter who wrote (45955)	6/2/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Kemble: Hey big guy.......Stick with the patience routine...it looks like it works pretty good.. The comments that we are hearing from various sources (originally from Dell) are consistent with what the bulls on the thread have been saying.....So far, so good......I look forward to hearing a summary of what Meredith is saying at Paine Webber today..... As for Asia, it is a mess, however, I think many investors haven't fully focused on some significant facts: Sure, the drop off in Asian demand will hurt many American companies, but who are those companies likely to be? For sure, consumer (Gilette, Coke, etc...funny, how these guys have held up best in the recent downturn)...exporters, of course, they will be hurt.....But Dell?........When Mike Dell was on CNBC a couple weeks ago, he mentioned that the "real" turmoil economies of SEAsia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand) represent a small % (I think he said around 1%) of Asian sales....that the significant amount of Asian sales took place in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, and China.....Sure, these economies are being hurt by the crisis, (but less so than Indonesia etc.)...The bottom line is Dell was able to grow sales at 35% in a pretty brutal Asian environment Q1...Could it get worse in these core Asian economies...yeah, just as possible things have flattened.....Also, People love to forget about the consolidation (big boys vs. the smaller manufacturers) that is taking place around the world...that corporations are more and more buying PC, etc. from the big 5 only (Dell, CPQ, HP, IBM, and Packard Bell/Nec and/or Toshiba, in Asia)...this trend offsets the slowdown in the overall growth rate (in Asia)... But we all know that Dell has consistently grown market share in environments where no/slow growth exists, low/high interest rates, while other Computer manufacturers have made no profits or gone out of business, while other big computer manufacturers have lost market share.... More importantly, Dell sources from Asia (I think) around 65% of its components....so Dell can benefit from this crisis..... I read in a magazine recently how Korean consumers are now shunning foreign brands in favor of local brands......instead of Coke, the local beverage, etc....how are corporations going to do this for PC's? Are they all going to buy a local Korean brand? Not.... Corporations in Asia have been cutting spending much longer than consumer....probably up to a year now...Many Asian consumer just started 6 months ago...so Dell had a pretty good growth rate in Asia during the last year...and I would expect, barring a total collapse of Asian economies (still a possibility, but highly unlikely), Dell should continue to grow Asia (at worse) above 20%, and likely higher.. (like the 35% that we saw in 1Q).... Results (overall) will not suffer under this scenario.... I wouldn't be surprised if Asia economies dont need at least one more year to see a big uptick, but, again, this effects a lot of other companies more than Dell........ Sorry to all that this post is a little rambling...am in the process of moving to a new place...lots to do..