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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (45966)	6/2/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Jim P.,..Re:<< But I don't think any one is immune to slowing of growth in the industry and at the same time, a increasing deterioation in ASP pricing.>> Do you think that you view the PC industry as a static entity? Do you think also that ASP declines are a permanent affliction or do they vary according to market conditions and costs? Just curious because all your arguments seem to be based on the fact that the industry is static. I agree, DELL does have an advantage over their competitors. Is DELL vunerable to their tactics, I think this depends on why they are attacking. Did you even consider that Dell might be the cause of these tactical changes? Why would Dell waste their time to be on so many industry standards committees? What are the innovations just around the corner which could catapult savvy companies further? Could it be related to the news out from Sprint today? XDSL? I don't think DELL is immune to the ongoing changes in the PC industry. Maybe Dell is instigating some of these changes? Regards, Lee

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (45966)	6/2/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim: My 2 cents worth: <<< I agree, DELL does have an advantage over their competitors.>>> Cash in the bank, specifically designed modern plants, new foreign presense, fastest implementation of new technology, plus many more... <<<< Is DELL vunerable to their tactics, I think this depends on why they are attacking.>>>> CPQ tactic has been to buy( possibly dated) factory facilities scattered around the country so they could dive head first into the most competitive field of low cost consumer computers, to get their own retailers/stores teed-off by also dealing direct, by canning 12,000 Tandem people, by having to demote executies obtained in the Tandem/Dec acquisitions, etc. This was not an attack on Dell, it was really hard-boiled, long term, American business practice that can be real good for the USA and American workers as it will drive out inefficient and foreign competitors and even some like IBM if they can't stand the low margins in that market. The CPQ situations is so complicated and unresolved that it is uncertain if or when stockholders can benefit. <<< Every thing was fine 9-12 months ago.>>> Wrong: Prices were dropping, Dell was expediting construction to meet ( promised) orders, was desperately seeking, training new employees, working out service arrangements with Wang after losing DEC. Same today, Dell does this behind the scenes very efficiently. Does not say to shareholders, hey we got a problem. They just solve the problem in a way that supports the customers( who happen to be rather sophisticated) <<<< At some point in the last 6-9 months, Something happened to cause CPQ to change its tactics against the competition.>>> Whatever they did so far has little effect on Dell except for a bit of price cutting in the server field <<< And now we are where we are today.>>> Where is that??? I notice an exceptional amount of BS and worry in the tech field, and concern over the high DOW. If some of the billions invested in those (so far non-producing)web stocks like aol,yhoo,xcit belonged to me, I'd pay attention too. Price of Dell looks OK to me <<<< I think the big question is: why did this happen? Is it just a collossal screw up on CPQ's and IBM's part, or did something happen within their industry that caused these companies to miss their forcasts? I think something has changed within the industry.>>>> Industry changing fast all the time.Volkwagon buys Rolls, Boeing buys Douglas, NB buys BAC( or did they)Hehehe) When all is done, CPQ may be the main integrating force in consolidations, E Pheiffer has done it before, they have lots of cash, European presence. If they can keep some profits coming in perhaps another acquisition when the DEC dust settles. Notice they NEED SOME PROFITS and therefore cannot afford to undercut the lowest cost (most efficient) producer, Dell. This is going to be a fun race to watch, if anyone is concerned about market cap, come back in three years and compare (or add) that of CPQ, DELL, and IBM. They should still be around(ggggg) Sig

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (45966)	6/2/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

JP- Dell's 2nd Quarter results will be rather significant for most of your (bearish) arguments.. For you to maintain many of your bearish arguments (with any credibility), those arguments are going to have to show some impact (certainly greater than in Q1) on bottom-line results (Sales, Earnings, Margins, EPS)... (1) Despite a huge ASP price decline in Q1, Dell grew sales at 52% and EPS at 63% in Q1...Even if ASP declines another 8%, what does it say about your bearish arguments if sales grow (again) at 50%+ and EPS at 60%+.......what happens if ASP doesn't decline 8% or goes up? Hmmm.. (2) We now have had sub-1000 PC's in the market for about a year now....where is the bottom-line, negative (profits) impact on Dell for not competing in this market, and where is the bottom-line, positive (profits) impact for CPQ and others.....How long until this is a profitable market segment? Where's the proof that Dell made an unwise decision to participate in this market (over the past year?) (3) HP, CPQ, IBM have been aiming their guns at Dell for a while....when is this effort going to (finally) have an impact? (4) When is the fact that retail channel is stuffed (and slowly becoming unstuffed) going to have a significant impact on Dell? (5) Bad asia conditions have existed for a year now (for corporations) Dell is still growing (35% in Q1) at a significant rate.. When is Asia going to have a bigger impact? Greater growth in the 2nd half of the year is a given for all big PC manufacturers (based on historical). Windows 98 will help (a little)....Inventories are declining...Asia could get better, could get worse, but the odds are better now that we are closer to the end (than one year ago)... Sorry for the rambling, but JP, your bearish arguments have to show some bite on August 19........There comes a time where worries have to translate into results......or you have to start posting different noise...based on the comments I'm hearing from this thread, and other sources, things look pretty good so far this quarter (for Dell).. Better cover soon, JP. I fully expect that after great Q2 results are announced (which I would consider .47 or better, although .46 would still be alright- we would probably both still have some ammo at .46- At .45 or below, I will gladly examine the results, and give you your due credit), you will shift your focus (to the bearish argument) of Dell competing against CPQ/DEC, and how the full-service model will out-compete Dell Yeah, just like IBM does.. Good luck with your investments... BTW- If Dell's stock price slips back a bit in the next couple weeks because OTHER TECH COMPANIES announce their problems, please don't post that this is any indication of Dell's impending trouble (we longs know better)........It's clear that Dell marchs to a different drummer...but I guess this will be have to be proven (again) when Q2 results are announced.

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (45966)	6/2/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Naggrachi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, isn't what got CPQ in trouble was their attempt to immulate DELL's way of building computers, i.e., BTO? Wasn't CPQ stuffing inventory channels last X-mas and then forced to lower prices and give away free monitors just move products?? Zead

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (45966)	6/2/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, I agreed with you right up until you said "I think it is a matter of time before what ever it was that got CPQ will get to DELL." What got Compaq was trying to emulate Dell without jettisoning their channel model of distribution. You can't have it both ways. Dell owes its success to two factors: First, maintaining very lean inventory levels which eliminates the problems caused by dropping component prices and obsolescence of inventory. Compaq, by comparison, relies on large purchases to get best per unit pricing (better than Dell's), but leaves them vulnerable if their forecasting is wrong because prices have dropped so rapidly in the interim. Second, Dell cuts out the middle men which enhances profits in two ways: it eliminates intermediate profit layers, but it also increases the efficiency of JIT inventory management. So what these companies tried to do was to emulate part of the package -- and halfway measures simply will not work. JIT inventory management depends on keeping your fingers on the pulse of demand, and you can't do that if it is first filtered through a series of resellers. Especially when you give them incentives to increase their inventory levels. That's a blueprint for disaster. TTFN, CTC