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Biotech / Medical : Trinity Biotech (TRIBY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Coenen who wrote (9413)	6/2/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: Scott H. Davis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14328

Bill, not quite my position. I start with identifying value with good growth possibilities, especially if I can also find catalysts the market will respond to. Then use TA and awareness of market psychology to identify entry points, or when to exit and look to re-enter with more cash later. I used to place a lot more emphasis on the story/technology, and got burned substantially. I no longer invest in development stage microcaps (not to seem hypocritical, but I don't put biotechs with multiple products in at least phase II with several major pharms partnerships in with these speculatives.) I would never buy based on TA alone, or even primary. Several practicle examples. INVX has a incredible value pedigree (PM=22.9, ROE=32.3, ROA= 28.5, debt/equity = .01, an FY99 forward PE around 7, trailing 12 month earnings = 1.98 (not too bad for an $18.00 stock) good historical and long term projected growth. Strong position in it's industry. But because a major part of its business is disk drive componants, WDC, QNTM, SEG have draged its price down. I bought last fall based on its value at around 23. Exited a couple months later down a half point when I realized I was fighting a powerful trend - market psychology. It was a better short candidate than a long. Its 18 today. Bought VICL at 13.25 in January, when it was obvious that the state of clinical development had brought about a very favorible risk/reward climate. It was a good long term potential 1-2 years ago also, but the price had gotten ahead of itself after a Smart Money article, and the stock was locked in volitle trading ranges for over 1.5 years. It's at 18.5 right now. I'm not a good trader, nor do I try to be. I used TA & awareness of market trends to wise up that I was looking a "dead money at best for the intermediate term" with INVX, and TA and business case analysis to determine that the time was finally right for VICL. I could have traded VICL in an attempt to aquire a larger position, but since trading is not my forte, and I work a day job, I am holding this as a long term investment. I continue to follow it & monitor its development, and all I read continues to confirm that its time has come. Hope this helps. Not meant to be antagonistic, I honestly believe that most of us can contribute aspects of analysis in an ongoing cross-education effort. Scott