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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Debt Free who wrote (19835)	6/2/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

I don't think you should buy either AMAT or KLAC yet. You wrote:If I have around $3,100 to spend on either AMAT (30 3/8) or KLAC(30 3/8), why should I buy AMAT over KLAC? I understand that Orbit and Opal are offering equipment at large discounts to similar KLA-Tencor equipment. Over time (next cycle), I expect some market share loss by KLAC, and certainly lower margins. This makes KLAC stock much more risky than AMAT stock. I would not assume that KLAC's historical numbers will be predictive of their future results once the downturn has ended. I think that AMAT's earnings recovery will be more predictable. But its almost certain that the current downturn has not bottomed yet, and won't until next fall. Given the additional 'market risk' of a general downturn in the technology sector, we could see both stocks fall another 30%. Given the small amount of money you have to invest, wait until you see the "whites of their eyes". As one sage remarked, its like a baseball game, but you get to wait for a perfect pitch. You don't have to swing until you're really ready. JMHO, Paul