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Gold/Mining/Energy : Arcon Energy (MIDL Presently) The Ultimate Sleeper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Harrington who wrote (2313)	6/2/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: Almost Blue	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4142

When I was younger I raced motocross and still ride my dirt bike in the desert. We all used racing fuel (Trick) I wonder what the potential in that market is? Anyone have thoughts?

To: Jeff Harrington who wrote (2313)	6/2/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4142

>> I predict.... Near future 1. The petroleum guys are not known for being especially light on their feet. They are apt to move slowly, and the bigger they are, the more slowly they will move. 2. DF-144 has yet to be demonstrated in large-volume tests, either from a production or fleet-test perspective, although there is a large database of information about ethanol-blending and reformulated fuel performance in general. 3. Blenders will be faced with significant (to them) technical adjustments and personnel learning curve in any movement toward DF-144. 4. It is unlikely that major blenders will abandon MTBE in a hurry, because of their large investment in MTBE production facilities. 5. It is unlikely that major blenders would consider only ONE option to replace MTBE ... they would be foolish not to examine several alternatives (although my research has not indicated much competition). For these reasons, let us modulate our eagerness. News items we might see within the 90 days timeframe are: A. Arcon clarifies terms of split (I expect another PR soon on this, myself) B. Arcon announces milestone(s) in first 100,000 gal/day plant construction C. 3-5 other blenders request evaluation samples D. 1-2 US blenders initiate limited trial programs E. 1 blender in Canada initiates major trial program G. (soon) Arcon announces filing of audited financial report. H. Arcon announces major investment (Gary, what's in the treasury for Exxon?) These are EXAMPLES of the sort of news we might see over the next 90 days. They are MY GUESSES. I do not expect to see JV agreements within that window, because blenders have a lot to integrate before taking that step and because such JV(s) would entail significant negotiations. I forsee DF-144 gaining acceptance by one or more major blenders, perhaps a majority eventually. With 10 100,000 gal/day plants operating gross operating income would be $0.80 * 100,000 * 10 = $800,000/day = $200,000,000/year. I don't have enough information on capital costs of production to estimate how that would net out ... but it's a lot, anyway. You can find production supply and demand info on the Arcon website and cross check it with the research links I posted earlier (I will eventually compile these links into a research index).