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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (19641)	6/2/1998 6:13:00 PM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Monty - can you chart the moving average of the stocks dropping below their 200 dma for the last 30 days and project how many will be below their 200 dma after 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days ???

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (19641)	6/2/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Monty; This is great !! Look I may have got his words twisted up, or like he may have said above , and then added below some average..none the less the "idea" is intact this will work fine it's just a way of looking at the internals and comparing them to the index itself. They will diverge and converge , what the linkage will be time wise we will have to analyze them some to see. But I feel sure this will make a great leading indicator ( more so at times when the divergence from the S&P is greatest ), and say it starts to reverse..like if this starts improving as the S&P falls..we will know the bottom is near..( this measurers the breadth of the market or relative strength ) it's all relative. 30 Days ago 415 were above the 200 DMA 28 down per 10day= 20 Days ago 387 were above the 200 DMA 14down per 5days 15 Days ago 378 were above the 200 DMA then 11 dn 10 Days ago 375 were above the 200 DMA then only 3 5 Days ago 362 were above the 200 DMA then 13 dn Yesterday 341 were above the 200 DMA then 19 down !! looks like the rate tried to stall 10days ago but is picking up fast now..this is like a 15% drop in relative strength in 30 days..with the rate now picking up... With this I think it's safe to say any bubble rally will be short lived. Maybe he was saying the rate of drop in the 200ma was out running the rate of drop in the S&P his chart was a dual chart and it went fast and I didn't tape it..but caught the idea any way, and this will work , just back test it a little, but we had a total of 74 issues out of 500 drop below the moving 200 MA, at no time did the number reverse ( he likely looks at this all the time but just didn't present real clear )..any way thats a 14.8% drop in the amount that was above the 200 MA..30 days ago, and says things are still bearish. This trying to jump in and out is no good and with this I think you can have some faith to stay the course untill it swings or at least stalls. I think the 5day thing is good enough..damm the knee jerks Thanx. BTW while the S&P was up a tiny bit today..the BIG Super caps were DOWN...program trading wipe lashing every one but we are still headed down. They trade baskets in a way to prop up the index one day buying more thinly traded ones as they sell the Mega CAPs then can kick the snoot out of her the next, having got their futures and options all lined up.. Just watching the MID caps converge , diverge , over and over agian aginst the OEX shows me what they are doing..it's just market manipulation within a trading range that keeps sliping south. Jim