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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rono who wrote (6480)	6/2/1998 9:43:00 PM
From: Tavros	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

Wonderbread, Today's price action maybe related to the "strong buy" opinion issued by Morgan Stanley with a year-end target of $38 and a title of "enough already". The thrust of the report was along the following lines: 1. Stock price is down in sympathy with the rest of the wireless players. NXTL is unnecessarily penalized because nothing has changed and all fundos remain in place oe expected to get better(i.e., expected additions for QII98;estimates >375,000). 2. Bad debt management has been dealt with aggressively and conservatively (i.e., losses taken upfront and possibility of recoveries). 3. Selling and admin expenses are getting lower as economies of scale are kicking-in ($453 per new addition in IQ98 as opposed to $545 in IQ97). 4. Capital expenditure will be in line with the company's plans of $1.5 billion. IQ98 above average reflects acceleration and frontloading, not overall increase. (Apparently investors are worried about it). 5. The new "eagle" phone expected in mid/late summer. 6. Analyst estimates that international operations represent at least $7 which is not fully reflected in the stock price. 7. The company will get positive operating cashflow at the latest in IVQ98 and possible as early as IIIQ98. 8. Stock price reflects a multiple of 15x 1999 operating cashflow which is low compared with other wireless players (or it may reflect lack of conviction on the part of the investors on the estimated cashflow). 9. All in all the analyst things that the price represents value at these levels (hence "enough already") and sets a $38 target price by year-end. I hope the above helps Patient tavros PS: Not a huge amount of new info but good publicity coming from Morgan Stanley 4.

To: Rono who wrote (6480)	6/2/1998 11:19:00 PM
From: Ken Benes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

Wonderbread: From a TA perspective, nxtl is a very difficult case at the moment. The stock has been oversold for weeks, and has fallen thru many levels of support. In an attempt to determine the reasons for this breakdown, you have to consider the current environment of increase competition, overvalued markets, and the huge amount of leverage on nextels balance sheet. At what level will nextel find support, I do not think anyone knows for sure. Should the market continue to selloff, nextel will continue to decline. This is the time to ask yourself what you expect from this stock. If you are a short term trader, this is not the time to buy. If you are in this for the longer term and you own lower price stock, this may be the price to average up. If you bought in at higher prices, I would use a lot of caution in averaging down. I believe the markets will reveal there short term strengths or weakness in the very near future. I particularly liked the housing numbers today, and the overall levels of economic activity. We may be in a transition phase, where markets shift from the high tech boom of recent years to a more traditional consumer led increase in economic activity. It appears that consumers have it all, low energy prices, cheap goods in the stores, and good pay. We may be thru with the pc and the intense work required to constant upgrade, learn new programs and heading to a new period of living it up. If this is the case, bring on the cell phones and anything related to telecommunications. I am looking for the current weakness to end soon and I cannot think of a better indicator than the numbers released by Chrysler today. They were spectacular and to me in a very real way obviate the decline in Asia. When nextel rolls thru its 200 day ma at 26, we will be ready to rock and roll. Ken