To: Richard Saunders who wrote (5132 ) 6/3/1998 8:26:00 AM From: Kerm Yerman Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 24921
All / Kouple Of Komments On Komments Would it surprise you that all 6 of my kids names begin with K. Re-pricing. With the information flow we've seen over the past few weeks, it would appear companies are beginning to think that depressed oil pricing is to continue longer than originally thought. The IPE Brent price forecast to be used by the companies in the article appear to be in line with the WTI estimate I've been stating - factoring the historical variance percentage between the two. I agree with the idea that a company should be basing 1998 activity on conservative oil price estimates, rather than optimistic estimates. Therefore, we can expect to see a rash of revised lower cash flow forecasts by the larger junior oil group and larger companies in their 2nd quarter reports. The impact of lower reported cash flow numbers has surprised me. I originally thought if a company suffered a fallback of 25% in average oil price realized, they could offset it with an equal increase in production rates. That apparently is to simplistic because it isn't happening that way. However, it is still early (in reporting) and most companies are just beginning to reflect this years increased production numbers. Which brings me to this point - primary thought must be given to production numbers of first and second quarters as they are reported. Keep informed of a company's progress against their "average" daily forecasted production rate for 1998. Failing to realize production goals, coupled with a large debt load will cripple a company severely. Look at companies with the characteristics of the combination of increasing production,low debt and working within their cash flow. The list is brief for companies producing 5,000+ bbl's/d. Primary attention should be given to those companies producing in the 2500 to 5000 bll's/d range whose shares have suffered setbacks due to general market conditions. To further qualify these companies, look for those who have progressed close to 1998 production goals already, or at least by the end of the second quarter. Under no circumstances, estimated year end debt should not exceed 1-1/2X estimated 1999 estimated cash flow. An investor focusing on these requirements will be okay and in a very favorable situation when the market environment improves for the oils. It is time to be deliberate in determining those companies favorable for investment. When should we jump into oils to a larger scale - My guess is when oil sells for $17.00+ for over a 30 consecutive day period. Re-U.S. companies and Canadian acquisitions. I ran two different articles on the subject (back to back) - basically one from a Canadian viewpoint and one from a U.S. viewpoint. Comparisons were interesting when cash flow and earnings were mentioned. Re-management. As I have learned in the school of Hard Knocks U., one should rely on past experience and accomplishment of key management. Some smaller companies that come to mind are Tethys Energy, Bonavista and Big Bear Exploratiion - as well as those mentioned by David. Also take note of what well respected peers are saying. The young upstarts in managing successful operations are also interesting. I have been impressed with comments from a few people regarding the impressive staff put together at Genesis Exploration. Has anyone noted that there has been a lot of insider selling in service companies in the U.S. For Canadian companies - like Precision Drilling, further continued growth should come from international growth while maintaining Canadian operations at rig inventory capacities.