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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Richard Saunders who wrote (5132)6/3/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: AL R  Respond to of 24921
 
Recent Insider Trading in TSE Oil & Gas related stocks

Stock Insider Date Bought Sold Avg. Total Held
Price
ARC En Trust J.M Stewart 03/98 7000 10.15 7000
Abacan Res Capital Grp 04/98 556300 2.18 4120300
Alberta Energy R.A Towler 03/98 7500 35.40 5000
Anderson Ex R.C. Osborne 04/98 1715 16.60 7649
Anderson Ex D.G. Scobie 03/98 40000 16.35 23988
Barrington Phillips Hager 03/98 42400 4.49 6811636
Berkley Pet M.L. Rose 03/98 15000 14.00 1056382
Berkley Pet D. E. Tumbach 04/98 20000 15.00 133250
Berkley Pet R. N. Yurkovich 04/98 18000 14.12 581716
Can Occident D.R. Laurance 03/98 1500 28.60 3000
Can Occident K. Patterson 03/98 17600 28.58 5571
Can Occident M.R. Ronaow 03/98 1500 27.50 2605
Carmanah A.R. Badwi 04/98 70800 8.00 761088
Carmanah W.S. Bishal 04/98 10000 8.08 0
Carmanah D.D. Barkwell 04/98 30000 8.18 27800
Carmanah C.W. Berard 04/98 10000 8.05 6445
Elk Point R. Chaney & Co. 03/98 12200 6.15 2890300
Imperial Oil Imperial Oil 03/98 279600 80.25 8700
Magin Energy G.A. Yeryk 04/98 50000 2.50 1064600
NQL Drilling M. Balsa 03/98 45000 12.00 38333
NQL Drilling W. Stelmaschuk 03/98 10000 12.50 235956
Newport Pete M.L. Radnall 04/98 30000 6.00 389764
Newport Pete M. Tkaczuk 04/98 40000 6.00 28152
Pan East T.D. Asset 03/98 400000 1.88 5710000
Pengrowth En G.M. Anderson 03/98 2000 8.25 1050
Petro Canada R.W. McCaskill 03/98 18660 25.75 63900
Petrobank En M. Salmon 04/98 4300 2.50 4300
Petrobank En J.D. Tocher 03/98 3000 2.30 3778600
Petromet Res L.J. Smith 03/98 261000 3.50 605130
Place Res K.W. Hern 03/98 10000 2.15 419818
Place Res Place Res 03/98 19800 2.00 719000
Place Res Robertson Steph.03/98 49200 2.04 2730239
Plains Energy T.M. Holland 04/98 5000 8.50 9000
Poco Pete D.D. Barkwell 04/98 20000 16.00 46995
Poco Pete W.E. Bradford 03/98 40000 14.75 1000
Poco Pete J.W. Ferguson 03/98 60000 15.75 225600
Poco Pete K.S. King 03/98 12000 15.80 1906
Probe Expl R. Tourigny 04/98 11700 6.60 304452
Prudential Stl C.R. Fairman 03/98 5000 14.20 0
Ram Pete J.L. Tindale 03/98 1500 1.61 5000
Remington En J.S. Palmer 03/98 2000 15.88 104500
Rio Alto Expl FMR 03/98 744500 15.52 5613600
Saxon Pete G.A. Tarrant 03/98 14000 0.43 1982872
Shaw Ind Z.D. Simo 03/98 3500 48.00 23000
Startech Energy E. Koeller 03/98 4000 6.50 12170
Thunder Energy R. Chaney & Co 03/98 42300 1.85 1839400
TCPL R.B. Hodgins 03/98 76465 N/A 1131
TCPL R.T. Smith 03/98 24720 34.20 6093
TCPL J.G. Walker 03/98 3000 33.50 1139
Tri Link Res Phillips Hager 02/98 51050 15.95
Tri Link Res Phillips Hager 03/98 7000 16.07 2667500
Tri Link Res R.E. Storie 02/98 1000 15.50 3000
Upton Res J.R. Woods 04/98 5000 3.45 13000
Westminister J.N. Woods 03/98 26200 8.00 3821234




To: Richard Saunders who wrote (5132)6/3/1998 8:26:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 24921
 
All / Kouple Of Komments On Komments

Would it surprise you that all 6 of my kids names begin with K.

Re-pricing. With the information flow we've seen over the past few weeks, it would appear companies are beginning to think that depressed oil pricing is to continue longer than originally thought. The IPE Brent price forecast to be used by the companies in the article appear to be in line with the WTI estimate I've been stating - factoring the historical variance percentage between the two.

I agree with the idea that a company should be basing 1998 activity on conservative oil price estimates, rather than optimistic estimates. Therefore, we can expect to see a rash of revised lower cash flow forecasts by the larger junior oil group and larger companies in their 2nd quarter reports.

The impact of lower reported cash flow numbers has surprised me. I originally thought if a company suffered a fallback of 25% in average oil price realized, they could offset it with an equal increase in production rates. That apparently is to simplistic because it isn't happening that way. However, it is still early (in reporting) and most companies are just beginning to reflect this years increased production numbers.

Which brings me to this point - primary thought must be given to production numbers of first and second quarters as they are reported. Keep informed of a company's progress against their "average" daily forecasted production rate for 1998. Failing to realize production goals, coupled with a large debt load will cripple a company severely.
Look at companies with the characteristics of the combination of increasing production,low debt and working within their cash flow. The list is brief for companies producing 5,000+ bbl's/d.

Primary attention should be given to those companies producing in the 2500 to 5000 bll's/d range whose shares have suffered setbacks due to general market conditions. To further qualify these companies, look for those who have progressed close to 1998 production goals already, or at least by the end of the second quarter. Under no circumstances, estimated year end debt should not exceed 1-1/2X estimated 1999 estimated cash flow. An investor focusing on these requirements will be okay and in a very favorable situation when the market environment improves for the oils. It is time to be deliberate in determining those companies favorable for investment.

When should we jump into oils to a larger scale - My guess is when oil sells for $17.00+ for over a 30 consecutive day period.

Re-U.S. companies and Canadian acquisitions. I ran two different articles on the subject (back to back) - basically one from a Canadian viewpoint and one from a U.S. viewpoint. Comparisons were interesting when cash flow and earnings were mentioned.

Re-management. As I have learned in the school of Hard Knocks U., one should rely on past experience and accomplishment of key management. Some smaller companies that come to mind are Tethys Energy, Bonavista and Big Bear Exploratiion - as well as those mentioned by David. Also take note of what well respected peers are saying. The young upstarts in managing successful operations are also interesting. I have been impressed with comments from a few people regarding the impressive staff put together at Genesis Exploration.

Has anyone noted that there has been a lot of insider selling in service companies in the U.S. For Canadian companies - like Precision Drilling, further continued growth should come from international growth while maintaining Canadian operations at rig inventory capacities.