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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RT who wrote (8948)	6/2/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

RT, The point you make is not actually good for Vivus. In fact it would support the theory of a larger pool of satisfied MUSE patients. We now know the effect of Viagra on MUSE for the first month. What we don't really know is how long it will take for the Viagra failures to seek further treatment. Seems like the medical concensus on Viagra on moderate to severe ED cases is a bit less than 50%. If this is correct and Viagra is doing almost 300,000 new scrips per month then I still see a very large potential for new patients trying MUSE. Lets say that about 1/3 of the Viagra scripts are written for men with moderate to severe organic ED. If this is the case and Viagra works effectively in 50% then that leave Vivus with about a weekly pool of 50,000 new patients. Even if my numbers are way off by lets say 75% this still would leave a new patient pool of 12,500 per week which is higher than the new script numbers of MUSE before Viagra was available. I think that way too many of you think that the script numbers should rebound overnight and this just is not possible. We need to see where the numbers are in another month or two to be able to acertain exactly what the effects of Viagra will be in the long run. I for one am not worried about the numbers and am actually happy with the refill numbers since they are holding up better than I expected. Nobody is happy with the low new script numbers but it just tells me that most of the urologists who were writing scripts to their new ED patients are now starting with Viagra instead of MUSE.