To: j g cordes who wrote (16282 ) 6/3/1998 4:53:00 AM From: Johnny Canuck Respond to of 68499
Jim, I just finished listening to the NN conference call and reading Pat Mudge's notes. Just to add another point of view since Pat missed a few key points. That Greek that Pat talked about is actually pretty critical. The question was how did the linearity shape up for the Q and what will it be going forward. The answer was not what you would really like to hear. The Q was approximately 25,25, and 50 for order in each month in the Q. They see that for the next 6 to 9 months. Their improved target in 9 months is 30, 30, 40. That is an improvement, but the fact remains that they are in rear end loaded business. So this stocks should remain volatile going forward since they won't know if the made the Q estimates to the very end .DSO is 99. I can't find my notes from the last CC, but they did state this was an improvement over last Q. They roasted Cascade (now ASND) for a increased DSO of 70. I don't think anyone will like the unusually high DSO. They are hoping for 70 days going forward. They will need to show that they can get this down going forward. Pat missed a question about the channel that is very important. NN still have no channel for its products in the enterprsie space. The alliance with COMS helps but they are still relying on carriers to specify their equipment to enterprise customers. They need a direct channel or a channel of value added re-sellers if they ever want to succeed in the space. On the plus side they have 50% of the TDM business. That business is declining slower than originally projected. ATM sales are up 70% which is the same as ASND ATM sales( from memory),so they are matching the growth rate of their competitors. The long term story remain positive for NN. I am not so sure about tommorrow though. Most analysts congratulated TM on a good Q, but I am not so sure myself. Pepe on the NN thread was referring to the fact NN does not have a layer 3 gigabit ethernet system I believe. Some companies are looking at using these high speed systems with IP switching. This approach is cheaper than ATM and faster as you do not have the overhead of ATM . It does lack the Quality of Service of ATM though. Anyway, just another view of the CC. Harry