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To: EPS who wrote (38)	6/3/1998 6:36:00 AM
From: EPS	Respond to of 5130

As my wife kindly points out the argument is circular. To compute the average price of TBR I will need to wait until the end of the championship. What to do? Simply take the price at the beginning of the cup or wait until the first round ends.. Now back to work. VD

To: EPS who wrote (38)	6/3/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5130

Say that x is the average price of TBR during the games. Based on econometrics the chances of Brazil winning this thing are W = (x-120)10 % So look for TBR @ 130 or more for Brazil to win without Romario. Of course if x is smaller than 120 forget Brazil.. Now if W <100 then the chances of France and Argentina become bigger than zero. Germany could also be there. The exact probabilities for this to happen I have also computed but the margin of error is such that the chances of these teams are statistically undistinguishable in my model.. So I'll say that the following teams, ordered alphabetically, have the best chances of becoming the top 4 teams in the world: Argentina, Brazil, France, and Germany. Well!! No wonder you were hesitant to come up with a prediction!! Let's see if I can translate the prediction.... I also see that you are a good diplomat, (like Ronaldo), using the Alphabet as an aid to establish ranking in the race for supremacy in the world of soccer...[in Ronaldo's case it seems suspicious, as he is an Argentinean, so one could build a case of "bias", since it could be more than a coincidence* that Argentina starts with an "A" and the alphabetical method is used... In any event, as to your prediction, let's see, you are correlating the price of TBR to the chances of Brazil winning the cup, however, you did not include the possibility of a devaluation in the Real (formerly "cruzeiro") versus the US Dollar, as it would definitively affect of the price of TBR. The above would tell me that Argentina, in your eyes, would have a better chance of winning, (As the Argentinean Peso is tied to the value of the US dollar, in addition, it agrees with your alphabetical aided prediction). The circularity that your wife aptly points out, will have to be ignored, since it presents the same question: "Who came first, the chicken or the egg? However, such question has finally been answered by the report that the chicken was seen smiling, very relaxed and smoking, as he sat next to the egg [who was not smiling.....] Not to mention that today, TBR is at $108.- (last I checked). And so I read [interpret], your prediction as follows: (considering the logistics that an all South American final, would be less than likely). 1. Argentina 2. France 3. Germany 4. Brazil Thank you for the prediction,as as a result of your brave attempt, a small commercial message for Victor's benefit.... Please visit: Subject 20479 Z.