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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12550)	6/3/1998 7:11:00 AM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 116796

Bobby: The Veneroso article is compelling. Time to short High Tech???? Live long and prosper, Little joe

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12550)	6/4/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116796

Gold rises on Russia optimism, oil also firm 06:45 p.m Jun 04, 1998 Eastern NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - Precious metals prices rose on Thursday as gold traders shrugged off a surprise rise in interest rates in Britain and focused on a rate cut in Moscow, easing fears that Russian metals might flood world markets. Elsewhere, oil prices closed higher but off the day's highs after fresh pledges by several oil producers to seek more cuts in production fell short of addressing the current oil glut. Cotton prices rose as weather worries about crop damage in top producer states Texas and California underpinned values. At the COMEX, gold for August delivery settled at $295.60 an ounce, up 30 cents from Wednesday's close. July silver ended 4.2 cents an ounce higher at $5.22. A surprising quarter-point increase on Thursday by the Bank of England on one of its key money market rates jolted many financial markets but had no immediate impact on gold, traders said. If banks in other developed industrial nations followed suit, gold could be vulnerable to a selloff, they added. Higher interest rates raise the costs of holding metals. But metals traders preferred to focus on Russian rates instead. The Russian central bank on Thursday trimmed its key interest rates to 60 percent after pushing them to 150 percent last week amid signs of financial turmoil. At that time, metals traders interpreted the soaring rates and plunging rouble as signs that Russia might sell sizable amounts of gold and other metals to secure hard currency and buttress its currency reserves. But Russia's new Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko said Russia's prospects were brightening. ''The situation on Russian financial markets is stabilising smoothly and solidly,'' he told reporters. Dinsa Mehta, global managing director for commodities at Chase Manhattan bank in New York, said, ''Any stability in the Russian market is likely to be bullish for gold. That near-term panic over the threat of Russia selling gold like mad in the market appears to be subsiding for the time being.'' A similar effect caused palladium to shoot higher. Palladium shipments from Russia have been stymied all year as a result of bureaucratic wrangles within Russia, but reports that some metal was starting to trickle into Japan caused a sharp drop in prices earlier this week. Palladium prices reversed direction on Thursday, triggered by fresh buying of platinum group metals in Tokyo markets. One analyst, Ross Norman of Precious Metals Research, noted that Russia seems to have sold about 400,000 ounces of palladium sponge, not ingot. This suggests that a direct sale by Russia's Norilsk metals refinery was made and official sales from Almazjuvelirexport, Russian's export agency, still have not been approved. ''I think we are likely to see the market move much higher. We have seen all the metal absorbed by the industrials already,'' Norman said. At the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil markets rallied on news that three of the world's largest producers, led by OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia, agreed to cut their daily output by a collective 450,000 barrels to boost flagging prices. In a statement issued after a one-day meeting in Amsterdam, ministers from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, Mexico and Venezuela said ''excessive stocks need to be reduced to bring the market to balance and prices to acceptable levels.'' They plan to ask producers inside and outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to join in the cuts. Crude oil for July delivery ended 31 cents higher at $15.12, but that was well off the high price of $15.56 during the day. Secret talks between the three producers in March had helped orchestrate a combined reduction between OPEC and non-OPEC nations of 1.5 million barrels a day, but that round of pledges only briefly lifted oil prices above $17. ''There is a chance that other producers may join the three,'' said John Lichtblau, president of the New York-based Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. Oil products mirrored the cautious optimism of crude. July gasoline ended 0.14 cent a gallon higher at 49.89 cents and July heating oil 0.78 cent a gallon higher at 39.50 cents. At the New York Cotton Exchange, worries about the size of potential crop damage from drought in number-one producer Texas and cold rainy weather in number-two producer California continued to be the main points of concern. July cotton closed up 0.55 cent a pound at 73.31 cents. The contract has risen nearly 18 percent from its April 7 low. Forecaster Weather Services Corp. said on Thursday that Texas might receive isolated showers and thunderstorms by Saturday but that dry weather would likely return Sunday or Monday. ''If we don't get rain in Texas, we may trade higher,'' said Keith Brown, president of commodity trading company Keith Brown and Co. in Georgia. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12550)	6/4/1998 8:03:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

Asia oil demand slows for now, but long view intac 03:05 a.m. Jun 03, 1998 Eastern By Azlin Ahmad KUALA LUMPUR, June 3 (Reuters) - The Asian economic crisis has severely hit the growth of oil demand and is expected to keep refinery margins under pressure into the next decade, analysts and oil industry officials said. But growth will still be higher than in western Europe or North America and longer term it should rise more strongly again, they said at an oil conference this week in Kuala Lumpur. But when the previous strong growth trends would resume remained open to question. ''We have the perspective to view the current economic crisis as a difficult, but temporary interruption in a longer term horizon,'' Lance Johnson, executive vice president of Mobil Oil Corp of the United States, said. ''Asia is a growing region. Economic slowdown caused by the recent currency crisis will be short-lived,'' said Masato Hisatake, director for International Petroleum Affairs, Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry. Energy demand has been severely hit by the economic crisis that enveloped Southeast Asia and South Korea. But it has also been exacerbated by an economic slowdown in India and China, two major oil importers, and a stagnant economy in big-volume oil -consumer Japan. That has resulted in major downgrades of expectations for oil demand growth in Asia. Johnson said Mobil lowered its forecast for Asian demand growth over the next five years to 2.7 percent per year from a previous forecast of four percent. He forecast overall Asian oil demand at 22.3 million bpd in 2002, from 19.5 million bpd in 1997. Dennis Eklof, senior director of Asia Pacific Energy at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) of the U.S., said he forecast Asian demand growth in 1998 at 240,000 bpd, compared to the 1.0 million bpd that had been predicted in early 1997. The slowdown has resulted in energy projects being shelved, scrapped or delayed. Energy requirements have been cut. Muri Muhamad, vice president of gas business at Petronas, said South Korea had cancelled 770,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments for 1998 because reduced demand. Despite the hit to growth, Asian demand was still growing faster than in the west. Tim Faithfull, chairman and chief executive of Shell Singapore forecast Asian-Pacific oil demand would grow 3.3 percent a year between 1996 and 2000, compared with growth in western Europe and North America of 1.1 percent. He forecast Asian growth of 3.5 percent for 2000-2005 compared with 0.8 percent for western Europe and North America. But the sudden slowdown in growth has moved Asia from a net importer to a net exporter of oil products, which poses the challenge of ''coping with excess capacity,'' CERA's Eklof said. ''We estimate that the region's oil refining capacity is adequate through at least early 2000 and with additions already underway, the period of excess capacity could continue even longer,'' he said. Refining margins in Asia have been under pressure since late last year as capacity expansions met with the economic slowdown, leading Asian refiners to cut output several times. Shell's Faithfull said he expected incremental annual capacity expansion in Asia Pacific to be around 600,000 bpd between 1998 to 2001. ''With the economic slowdown, the building momentum is slowing, however projects already in place, such as in India and Taiwan are expected to continue to completion,'' Faithfull said. ''The overbuilding in 1996 and the sharp drop in demand after the Asian crisis in 1997 has put Asia into a surplus situation with Singapore prices no longer able to attract product from Europe,'' Richard Fernie, vice president of Caltex Singapore said. ''As a result, refining margins are very weak.'' Despite the slowdown and implications for trade and investment, all sources were optimistic the stronger growth trends more associated with Asia would resume in coming years. ''Eventually, we see strong and sustainable economic growth returning to the region and with that growth will come a return to high rates of energy demand growth and a soaring need for energy infrastructure investment,'' Eklof said. But the question of timing still lingers. ''Everyone says Asia will bounce back, but no one will say when,'' one oil trader said. ''You do get the impression that they expect only some countries to rebound, and others to take a long time.'' -- Kuala Lumpur newsroom (+603-275-6839) fax (+603-232-6752) Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.