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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12556)	6/3/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116815

Exact information re package employees health care right now one package i know of has gone up twenty percent.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12556)	6/6/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116815

Have you noticed the increase in strike activity? The effective mean compensation rate is approaching or at 5% per annum. At the same time unit labor productivity is 1%. Therefore the structural rate of inflation is 4%. Doesn't sound like much, but that is absolute disaster. The market still demands a 3% premium on expectations of FED propensity to fumble, so short rates must rise to 7%. If the FED holds down rates by supplying money at the margin through reap manipulation, the structural rate of inflation will rise. The Asian clowns have enabled a state of affairs that gives the FED breathing room, so they are delaying the inevitable. They always do this. They claim through this era's "hawks" that they have learned, but they are doing the same thing that the Burns FED did long ago. Provide money to prevent things from slowing down too much because of "X". "X" is Asia in this era. It was unemployment during the early '70s. There is always an "X" to bag these fools and their pretense to knowledge. Right now the FED is allowing the open market to raise fed funds to 5 3/4, but then they will start adding to fix them there so that we won't get into a tailspin. The working assumption of 99% of the world's best economists is that the core tendency is for society to go into depression and if the central bank doesn't rev things up, it will. The FED is a price fixer in a free market, therefore they misallocate funds. They necessarily get it wrong. The result is gyrations. Gold stocks have taken quite a fall. Gold hasn't. That's the nature of a bull market. You have to buy when you get this kind of correction. The stocks are cheaper intrinsically now than they were in January because the inflation outlook has necessarily worsened. The proof is that short rates admittedly slowly are rising. They're not rising because of excess demand for loanable funds. They rise from inflationary expectations which was the primary role played by long treasuries. You might counter that long rates are moving in the opposite direction. This is part of great expectations for an imminent renewal of the Asia thing. Money flows out of Asia into the dollar and thereby has the effect of subtracting out the embedded inflation, so the long bond players see a chance to trade. They're ignoring the strike activity here and abroad. They're ignoring the tightening noose on the world's supply of oil. They're ignoring the indolence caused by too many years of wealth creation. They're ignoring a world gone mad with too many weapons and too much hubris. I see hell on the horizon and I'm staying long gold stocks. I won't add except at higher prices. Hopefully the intrinsic long term downtrend isn't asserting itself just yet. I really don't think so because the determination of strikers is strong. They have rancor towards the beneficiaries of stock market heaven.