To: EPS who wrote (67 ) 6/12/1998 6:42:00 AM From: EPS Respond to of 124
Nikko Research Sees Japanese Auto Stocks As Good Buy If Yen Weakens Dow Jones Online News, Wednesday, June 10, 1998 at 08:46 TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- Nikko Research Center Ltd., an arm of Nikko Securities Co., said Wednesday it would recommend buying the Japanese automobile sector if the dollar strengthens to 150 yen. The yen closed trading at 140.22 to the dollar Tuesday in New York. Noriyuki Matsusima, senior analyst at NRC, said Honda Motor Co. (HMC) and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., in particular, would benefit the most because of their growing sales in North America. Toyota Motor Corp. (TOYOY) remains heavily dependent on sales in the domestic market and therefore isn't seen profiting as much. However, in the medium-to-long term, it should benefit from its globalization efforts. While Nissan Motor Co. (NSANY) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. would also benefit from a weaker yen, their efforts to export will be held back by high inventory levels in North America. Despite a weaker yen, Japanese auto makers will still be faced with problems at home and in the rest of Asia. Matsusima said he expects domestic auto demand to remain sluggish throughout the year despite the industry's hopes for a recovery in the second half when the effects of the government's 16.65 trillion yen ($118.7 billion) economic stimulus package are expected to kick in. Nikko Research is expecting domestic sales for the sector to fall 7.7% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 1999. In the last fiscal year, sales fell 15% to 4.75 million vehicles. Matsusima said the outlook is particularly bleak for truck makers. A reduction in disposable income as a result of the worsening business conditions at Japanese companies, as well as rising unemployment, are going to continue to hurt consumer demand, he said. At the same time, the radical changes in the Japanese financial system will also weigh on sentiment, he said. Matsusima noted that Nissan and Mazda managed to post higher sales in May. He attributed the increases mainly to their sales of cheaper models, such as Nissan's Cube and Mazda's Demio. Both are recreational compact wagons. Nissan's sales in May rose 3.5% and Mazda's edged up 0.1%. Overall sales for the sector in May fell 8% to 294,211 vehicles. Matsusima said a boom in more expensive recreational vehicles supported domestic auto sales after Japan's economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, and sedans lost popularity. However, growth in these more expensive recreational vehicles is now beginning to slow as consumers turn to cheaper vehicles amid the slowdown in the economy. "That's an obvious result," said Matsusima, who added that implementing cost reductions will become even more important for auto makers. The sluggish domestic situation and the current global restructuring in the industry with the proposed merger of Daimler Benz AG and Chrysler Corp. (C), has made it imperative for auto makers like Nissan and Mitsubishi, who have weak financial bases, to tie up with other auto makers to survive, Matsusima said. Toyota's plans to make Hino and Daihatsu its subsidiaries may be part of its efforts to become an even greater company, said Matsusima. "It wouldn't be strange" if one day Toyota even tied up with rival Nissan, he said. Copyright (c) 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.