Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (5652)	6/3/1998 8:32:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason, I agree - in the long run. My point was that in the near term, I think the Street is currently without direction on near term fundamentals, and with (1) the ongoing unrest in SEAsia, and (2) the looming possibility of a market downturn in general on weakening earnings, the individuals that control the money flows may be worried about committing funds to the semiconductor sector. When people as big as Intel stumble, it scares them a good deal. I agree completely that as you push out the time horizon, the stocks of the strong players will recover handsomely. I just question the V-ness of the near term recovery. I think it may be more U-shaped with a flat bottom for the next 2-3 months. It may also be wishful thinking on my part, since I will come into a handsome chunk of Change around the first week of July, and I don't want any big recovery until then. ;^) jess.

To: Mason Barge who wrote (5652)	6/3/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Lenny Ehn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason and Thread, Some questions for those with more knowledge than I have: Although semiconductor equipment stocks go up and down in accordance with their earnings prospects which follow the cyclical nature of the semi industry, it occurs to me that in many cases "the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater"; this seems to have been the case recently. Some companies which are lumped in the semi-equip field actually derive much of their income from consumables. Thus, the income of these firms should be less cyclical, unless semiconductor production itself drops, which doesn't seem likely. I have read somewhere recently that Dataquest, I think, predicted that semiconductor business would grow 6% this year. This, I believe, is in dollars. However, since the price/chip is typically dropping (especially in DRAM and other commodity items), this implies that the actual number of chips produced is rising (I think I read somewhere that by 2000, General Motors will ship more computing capacity than IBM, owing to the large/increasing number of IC's going into cars). If the number of chips is increasing steadily, shouldn't the amount of consumables used in semi manufacturing be increasing steadily? Would not these companies make "no brainer" investments? They should make money just like Levi Strauss did in the Gold Rush -- not by finding gold, but by selling supplies to the miners. A couple of firms which I believe fit into this category are ATMI and CRPB. Doubtless there are others; can someone comment on my reasoning and suggest other firms which fit into this category? Thanks in advance. Len