Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11083)	6/3/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Respond to of 152472

Article on Larscom, re WCOM, mentioning the Q. cnnfn.com

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11083)	6/3/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

I don't have the foggiest idea why lower chip rate would be a detriment to W-CDMA (and I just bet you didn't think I would admit that... few people in this thread seem to acknowledge the limits of their expertise, preferring to segue smoothly from facts to fantasyland). But I do have an idea how tearing down a standard that has been in development for half a decade just before implementation could be a real pain in the ass. And that is just what Qualcomm wants. Nobody here knows whether Qualcomm really has a valid claim to substantial IPR's in W-CDMA. But attempting to block the whole project unless it accommodates IS-95 is akin to throwing a hissy fit. It's not Europe's fault USA refused to embrace a global standard. Why should we suffer from that narrowly nationalistic decision now? There most certainly is not an IPR fortress around GSM, as evinced by the 25 companies hawking GSM phones, from Ferrari to Bang&Olufssen to Mitsubishi. I refuse to list them again. DDI and IDO are wannabes, NTT rules Japanese mobile phone landscape. There is a difference between NTT and DDI, there is a difference between China and 500 French people on Guadeloupe, there is a difference between worldwide consortium backing W-CDMA and a flimsy Qualcomm-Lucent axel behind CDMA 3G. GSM has a worldwide base, CDMA has a portion of US market and all of Korea. There are no guarantees about Japan. Nokia's newest model in Japan weighs under 100 grams and has voice dialing. This is the benchmark CDMA phones have to compete against. Just building the network does not guarantee healthy subscriber growth. And unlike in USA, there is a sturdy digital framework already in place in Japan and China. It's well nigh sacrilegious to mention Motorola in the same breath as the Nordic companies. Mot's handset problems have nothing to do with the upcoming W-CDMA phones that have been under development for years. And the launch date for W-CDMA is within sixteen months in Asia. European and Asian operators are amidst of a massive investment program in extending their GSM 900 networks into GSM 900/GSM 1800 dual band networks. These investments are being made weekly, check out the new Nokia/Ericsson orders. The money being poured into GSM right now all but shuts out CDMA in most parts of the world. There has been no slow-down, on the contrary. Nobody could have predicted the torrent of GSM orders Nokia is now getting. CDMA has had no impact on that. Unlike some people I could name predicted back in 1996. There is not one independent research outfit projecting any IS-95 penetration in Europe. It's a pipe dream. Most of Asia is a GSM domain in all of the projections I've seen. There is nothing but blind faith supporting the notion that IS-95 CDMA's global marketshare could top 20% in 2003. Nothing wrong with faith, but in investment decisions it would be good to keep in mind what 99% of experts are saying. The talk of licensing fees making Qualcomm wealthy beyond wildest dreams has been going on for years now. Nobody seems to calculate just how much a failed bid for handset manufacturing and an unprofitable network equipment sales unit will eat into those profits. These would be legitimate worries. The scenario where somebody pays 80 bucks a share for QCOM might turn out to be quite the reverse of the "nightmare" it has been called here once this company has been reduced to take-over bait by massive corporate overreach. Tero

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11083)	6/4/1998 1:42:00 AM
From: Asterisk	Respond to of 152472

I have a thought for all. Anywhere you see innaccuracies please tell me! From what I can glean from all of the press announcements this ETSI stuff will all be happening at a new yet to be established frequency above where all the GSM is now. I find it fairly interesting that everyone is missing one great point: You CANNOT directly convert a GSM system to a WCDMA system as you can convert an analog to IS-95. They are talking about how they want to utilize a completely new set of frequencies. from what I can tell this is like trying to decide what the US would allow in the 1900MHz range. If this is true much of this fighting is not about allowing the GSM systems an easier time of migrating to this new wonderland at a higher address. Instead it is about blocking the people who already have IS-95 from having an inherant head start. From all of the ETSI stuff that I have access to (which is basically press releases) they want this new frequency band to be an add on above and beyond the GSM system already in place. They are talking about using this spectrum as a panopoly for sattelite, data, and voice communications. If all of the above is true and we only extrapolate a teeny tiny bit it is odvious that the GSM industry has a vested interest in seeing that the IS-95 camp has roadblocks. This interest is just as strong as the interest of the IS-95 camp's to remove these blocks. This is business folks and as the saying goes all is fair in love, war and business. We tend to argue here about small stuff. Lets take a look at the big picture. It is evident that QCOM has some type of IPR that is important to CDMA. A majority of the major coms companies in the world have liscensed this IPR. Some believe that it is fairly important stuff (Phillips, Lucent) as they have already jumped on the next generation bandwagon before the bandwagon really has wheels. From all of this I would say that QCOM will be a major player in the next generation whatever it may be. All of the rest is in the noise, stuff that we have little if any control over and will only cause us to die a premature death if we worry about it. I have an analogy that some may enjoy. In the US San Francisco is famous for its fog. All of the QCOM investors are like drivers driving in a San Francisco fog bank. We can see what the road is in front of us (for about 10 feet) but past that it is all speculation. When the road turns, we have to turn with it. Sometimes we are headed up nob hill, others we are headed down without breaks. If you don't have the cajones to hang with it then bail out of the car. But in the end it will be a fun (if stressful) ride. At the end we will all sell our stock somewhere and the only person who can decide when to sell is YOU!