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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (9600)	6/3/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: gringodoc	Respond to of 18691

zona: slammed also by thestreet.com today: thestreet.com (snippets): >>Zonagen (ZONA:Nasdaq) had its data on two Phase III trials of its drug Vasomax presented here by the controversial and ubiquitous Johnny Spread-Your-Seed of impotence, Dr. Irwin Goldstein, a urologist from Boston University. This time, Zonagen presented data on a different number of patients than it reported data on in a press release last year and in a recent abstract. In the presentation, Goldstein, who serves as a consultant to more than half a dozen of the anti-impotence drug makers, pronounced the drug effective and safe. But some urologists continue to be baffled at the results and the trials' parameters and investors question the safety data. << >>Dr. Ron Lewis of the Medical College of Georgia challenged Goldstein, asking for an explanation of why Vasomax would work this time, when in a previous study in Europe it was shown not to work. He also asked for an explanation of why injectable phentolamine as a single agent didn't improve erections, but oral Vasomax did. Doctors also made the point at the presentation that Zonagen tested a population of patients with relatively mild impotence, which has been a common criticism of the trials that short-sellers have made about the company's trials. "I don't understand," said Dr. Lewis to TSC. "I don't know how with the injectable drug, you would not get an erection, but if it was taken orally you do. I don't think that was answered." (Lewis says he did "early consultant work" for Zonagen and has never participated in the company's clinical trials. He has consulted for and been an investigator for several other companies.) Though Zonagen had no serious adverse events in its trials, because the drug is a blood-pressure-lowering agent, several investors wondered if there might be a safety issue. Lewis said, "It gets in the bloodstream and if it's in the blood, one of the side effects of alpha-blockers is hypotension." Phentolamine is in a class of drugs called alpha-blockers. He added, however, that "I haven't heard even anecdotally of severe side effects." <<

To: Peter V who wrote (9600)	6/3/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Hank	Respond to of 18691

You underestimate the market. Not only does this data demonstrate how worthless Vasoscam is but it also shows there is no dose response. The 40mg dose and the 80mg dose achieved the same effect. This drug stands NO chance for FDA approval. Wasn't somebody just recently criticizing me for being a ZONA short? I guess I know what I'm doing after all. Imagine that!

To: Peter V who wrote (9600)	6/3/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi	Respond to of 18691

Peter V... Yes, finally it is going my way but a fair way yet to go. the trial results should help shorts. Your comment: >>I didn't think the market was that smart:<< Do not under estimate the market smarts. I am no statistical expert nor do I know much about drugs. I think however I have some common sense. It was reported that 53% were helped (at the 80mg dosage) and 38% given the placebo were also helped. That to me is very telling. Seems like some company ought to go out and simply sell placebo's!! Lot cheaper especially in the R/D area and almost as effective. Some of the other responses have already covered more in depth analysis of the trials so I will not repeat. IMO, ZONA is still headed down a lot further. How far, I don't know but now it is getting to be fun. Bob T.