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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris M. who wrote (3155)	6/3/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

From AOL's Market Day, tough day for Wole Fayemi. BigKNY3 VIVUS INC (VVUS) 7 25/32 -31/32. Some times even the analysts get it wrong. Of course, we are being sarcastic. As active investors have come to know, the guys/gals who are supposedly in-the-know get it wrong quite often. But very rarely does someone miss the mark by as much as one Cruttenden Roth analyst has. (Out of professional courtesy we will not use any names). Back in late-April, when shares of this erectile dysfunction treatment company were down 81% from their 52-week high (reached in Oct.) and right around the release of Pfizer's Viagra drug, the Cruttenden Roth analyst upgraded VVUS from a "neutral" to a "strong buy" and set a year-end price target of $23 a share. According to the analyst, after reviewing publicly available information submitted in support of Pfizer's New Drug Application and comparing results from Viagra and MUSE clinical trials, he felt strongly that Viagra was not the wonder drug that it was being hyped to be. The analyst felt that Viagra had safety and efficacy issues which would limit the patient base the product can treat. In his opinion, Viagra's shortcomings would open a window for MUSE, as erectile dysfunction patients who were not helped by Viagra turned to MUSE. So far, the analyst appears to have been wrong on almost all fronts. Not only have erectile dysfunction patients embraced Viagra, making it the hottest drug of all-time (racking up most prescriptions ever for a drug in the U.S. during its first month on the market), but Viagra has taken most of Vivus' customers. Last night, the company reported that sales of its MUSE urethral suppository have been lopped by two-thirds since Viagra was released. Even more damaging, however, is a report presented at the American Urological Association conference showing that MUSE was ineffective in most men when taken in a clinic environment, and less effective when used at home, with only 27% of patients using MUSE achieving an erection. The deluge of bad news over the past two days has led Genesis Merchant Group Securities analyst Chris Tihansky to lower his VVUS rating from "long-term buy" to "hold," saying that the AUA data will cause MUSE to be relegated to a niche product. Mr. Tihansky also says that there does not appear to be an overwhelming amount of support within the urological community for the use of MUSE as a preferred choice of treatment. We would expect this latest data to only increase the number of shareholders who join one of the more than half-dozen class-action suits that have been filed against the company. Maybe Cruttenden Roth should add its name to that list.