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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DaiS who wrote (9032)6/3/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: John W. Andrews  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
nutshell???/

Baggage from yesterdays earnings shortfall announcement and then a reminder of how poorly MUse did in a VA trial test....then....Cramer spanks out a few lines on CNBC about VVUS's use of expensivie rent a reps to push slaes of a declining product...and some bucket shop analyst downgrades it to hold and says it is relagated to a niche product....then massive selling..gnashing of teeth....and we are at 7 1/16 at close.....

Dr. ANdrews



To: DaiS who wrote (9032)6/3/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: DaiS  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
Anyway Edderd has a lot of explaining to do when he gets back, he said the conference would not have much impact.

It all seems a hatchet job on Vivus - I just hold that they can hold the fort.



To: DaiS who wrote (9032)6/3/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 23519
 
It seems to me that the shorters have timing and the media slanted to their favor. I noticed a selling spree and price drop today each time CNBC talked about Vivus. CNBC's reporting had nothing positive to say about Vivus or MUSE. They mention that the Pain Webber Anal_yst gave a -.45 estimate for Q2 yesterday. They mention how bad the script numbers are. They show how bad the chart appears. But little else is said. They don't mention that it has only been about a month since Viagra's release and we still can not judge the effects of Viagra until a couple more months have passed. The Genesis Merchant Analyst obviously didn't do his homework since he could have read the abstracts months ago. Also no mention of how slanted the antiMUSE studies were. This guy said today that after attending the conference, he felt that there was not "overwhelming support" for MUSE and said it was a niche product. Well we always knew that MUSE was not a perfect product and that not all urologists were in love with it nor did we think that it was for everyone.

The timing of this meeting could not have been worse for Vivus since it coincides with the release of Viagra and thus the lower scripts and earnings effect.

Folks, I have tried my best to view MUSE and the ED situation from as logical view as possible. I never thought that the product was perfect and I knew that the management of the company did not know how to run a smooth ship.

Based on the one sided slanted media and poor short term timing of the meeting during the release of Viagra, it is no wonder that the
stock price is now way below fair value. The shorts have done a wonderful job in dirrecting the flock of investor sheep in their direction. Just shout wolf and watch the panic stampede begin.

I have made all the points I have felt relevent over the last 6 months. Mass hype and histeria rules over a calm analysis of the "whole picture". I believe that in the long term Vivus and MUSE will do well and carve their just share of the ED pie. Unfortunately, todays investors are more concerned about the very short term and thus Vivus is beaten down to a price that can be deemed laughable at best. Vivus stock was prematurely overbought to the up side and now is prematurely over sold to the down side. I guess my lesson in this stock market game is that short term matters most and perception rules over fact.

Another "major" buy decision for myself on Vivus was the international acceptance of MUSE. Seems like England embrases MUSE and it has become popular in a very short time span. But of course you won't here anything positive like this on the CNBC propaganda machine.

Take the baton TA, I will now become a "lurker".




To: DaiS who wrote (9032)6/3/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
DaiS, today's scenario was planned for a year by shorts: we knew it was coming that's why some got out of Vivus earlier:It was known X 1year the

-- the AUA meeting would be this past weekend.
--that " excellent " results for Viagra would be touted as a cure for
old age and that many would buy into that
--that Vivus sales would be impacted as everybody jumped off the raft
and clung to " the purported lifesaving elixir of you ", " the
magic pill" , to wash away all our problems; even fraudulent
Zonagen was taken up in the air in the song and merry of the
moment.

Coincidentally to that, we've had

-- CEO of Pfizer sitting on Board of WSJournal, doing his best ( I
suppose ) to play up PFE and downgrade the competition, ( as any
CEO would do I suppose ).( I have to admit though that this is
purely conjecture so don't take it as fact.
--a turning of the market down, at the end of Q2, as jitters about
EPS and Asia are around.
--Nasdaq is tripped by dual blow, suit to Microsoft and Intel laying
people off and not coming out with Merced chip until 2000.Tehnology
leadership,/Naz are severely wounded. Vivus is in Naz.
-- an abundance of analysts/commentator recent graduates from our
famed Universities who can't spell and add and so find it difficult
to analyze events accurately.

Thus I think that we have likely reached bottom.I think the good news for vivus will now
begin to outstrip the bad news.These are:

-Recognition that there are only 3, currently, ( and ~ for next 3
years, gg ) potentially viable therapies for ED:
a) the needle; ( limited because patients don't like it ).
b) MUSE, and soon to be ( ~ 1 year ) MUSE/PRAZOSIN; very exciting.
c) Viagra, becoming less exciting. Reasons:
-deaths from heart attacks, from sex with or without use of Nitroglycerine.
-THREE QUARTERS, again,
THREE QUARTERS, of A L L Americans will die of a heart atttack.
-they will all use Nitroglycerine eventually. ( We all will, GG ).

( SEE POSTED ARTICLES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES IN MY NEXT POST
# AS TO THE EMERGING SIDE EFFECTS FROM VIAGRA ).
d) FDA approval
e) Good reports with use of ACTIS

TA