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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (19874)	6/4/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

jtechkid... for once we totally disagree... Management is in deep doo doo --- it is trying to reign in its own cap-ex but committed itself to a $500 million expansion this year, in the second half of the last year, when it bought the mirage (thank god the market did otherwise I for one would be a great deal poorer). AMAT is currently pushing out its own cap-ex but we are at the point where declining revs, and increasing costs are going to bite big. I believe AMAT will make a loss in the 4th q, that the 50% of orders garnered in the last month of the previous Q will be very expensive this.... I expect AMAT to break 25 and hit 19 buy mid summer... and if the bubble pops there is no earthly reason why we shouldn't see 15 or even 13 --- u see the problem with this implosion is that the baby boomer billions are likely to pass AMAT by for a while... too unpredicatble to base a retirement on.... I must say that it seems incredible to me that a scenario you, BB, DD, and myself saw so clearly last year was such a surprise to JM... but I guess when you're micro managing the macro slips through the cracks... Also... my guess is that HK breaks before Japan.

To: jtechkid who wrote (19874)	6/4/1998 1:39:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

jtechkid, >i think amat bottom around 25-30 . why?< Not to fast now, I want the stock to hit the low 20's so I can buy more. I maybe have to morgage the house but the upside reward vrs the downside risk will be worth it IMO. I am also watching the bpsemi sector as compared again the lows in July 1996 very close. Just hope that amat does not reverse up to quickly. IMO, I thank we still have a few weeks but who knows with the sector at the 21% bull % range. The funds could jump in a any time. However, the IBD Funds owning AMAT did drop to 377 funds Tuesday the lowest it has been for a long time. The obvious is that someone is buying at these prices, Big Bucks for one. Right! <G> Paul V.