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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (3495)	6/3/1998 11:01:00 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Respond to of 9256

>I even wonder whether HTCH despite not competing with captive >suspension business will ever recoup their huge expenditures. Z, That is what we ought call a 'pregnant observation'. What it goes to is trying to work out is what volume/asp must they sustain over time X to recover the capital. You might recall that a year ago INVX was talking about capacities of 18 million/week and HTCH was looking towards 14ish million per week. Looks to me like actual unit growth has flattened out and doesn't look like its going to accelerate anytime soon.....density growth is currently king of the hill. Without the volume they planned on, it is going to make it very hard to drop ASP's as customers might have expected. If they can't get up towards 5 million/week by Sept some doors may well spring open for non-HTCH alternatives. You can only sell suspensions at $1.50 a pop for so long, and thats not too long. :o) Oh well.....I just covered the calls I wrote a while ago so nervous nellie is a naked HTCH long once more. Best Regards.....Tom