To: RBM who wrote (7443 ) 6/4/1998 4:06:00 AM From: TraderGreg Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11708
Notwithstanding my posts of frustration, I am still long as before. The potential of EnviroTech alone is dramatic; LPS is still too ill-defined to rule on; AdHatters alone will support this price at $1 someday; forget oil/gas, sell that crap off to some .V company, eh? However, it appears to me that, from posts I have read not just here but on other threads I read, many corporate types are starting to get fed up with Internet information exchange. Here's why: Four years ago, it was all chop shops calling investors to suck them into the next big stock play. The Bulletin Board was a dark forest, with little light/information. The Internet, thru instruments such as SI, CW, Motley Fool et al, has changed that...forever. This stock hit $2.60 because of the Internet, it hit .35 because of the Internet(and lack of information). To be sure, a big investor can come in to CSMA and run this thing to the moon, but the Internet can take it to the outer planets. Corporate America is going to have to get their mind right, Luke...the Internet is not A vehicle now, it is THE vehicle for the vast, vast majority of issues traded on the BB and small cap NAZ. I can see and understand Mike M's frustration and all I can say is "Get over it and deal with it". Believe me, I want a Mr. D type of Investor to come into this stock. But first, some numbers for you to ponder. My thesis statement:The short term nature of most Net players necessitates that for a stock to stay elevated mandates a near total control of the float. Now, how to get there. From the first time this year that the stock went below 80 cents, approx 13 million shares have been traded. Remember, the BB and NAZ "double" counts volume. Further, I will assume minimal inventory before and now, so that means approx. 6.5 mm shares held by people in this range(under .80). This does not include "old timers" and the like nor those still holding above $1. It is my humble opinion that these big investors that Mike mentions must overcome this inertia of 6.5 mm shares held by frustrated or non-believer shareholders. The first couple of million shares should start soaking up some of the .60 to .80 crowd, which is great. The new day traders, momo crowd will augment this investor group and help absorb the remainder of the shares in the .60 to .80 price range. At this point,the makeup of the shareholders will have been transformed into the investor group and the momo/dt crowd. The investor group will now have to step in and be ready to buy some/all of the remaining shares from the momo/dt people. The above scenario can happen without one scintilla of news from CSMA. If news then hits, new buying from the net will supplant the previous net buying and we move to a new level..AT ALL TIMES, THE INVESTOR GROUP MUST BE ABLE TO REPLACE THE SHARES THAT THEY DID NOT ORIGINALLY PICK UP IN THE RUN TO .60 TO .80. Remember, I said 6.5MM shares needed. If they get the first 2.5 mm shares(~$1.5 MM) on the run, then 4.0 mm shares will still be needed...they can buy it up early or later...later is more costly. Another 1.5 MMshares(~$1.3MM) will need to be bought to get to $1. Once a $1 is reached, with at least 4 mm shares bought up by these investors and other shares perhaps bought by true longs, the weakest of hands can be replaced by residual funds still available to the investors. The interesting thing is this: Notwithstanding the sideways buying/selling above a $1 by others, the amount of money the investor group will need above $1 is actually LESS than the $2.8MM amount needed to get it TO $1. Remember, the float now is what, 7 to 8mm shares? At a $1, the "true" trading float will be less than half of that plus there will be greater awareness on the net(i.e., greater demand) due to news which by then should be available. The big question is this: Does this investor group that Mike M refers to have the near 3 MM dollars to get the first 4 mm shares and another couple of million to keep it afloat above $1(maybe less if a "new" investor group gets interested as new price ranges are reached.? Let us see. I'm in for the ride. Cautious, but at these levels, let us see. TG