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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5677)	6/4/1998 12:47:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

(AMAT still not cheap but n/t bounce if INTC no preannouncement & +2 overnight per I2, but BTB is still the i/t indicator) RE: Trading under $30! Where will people buy 300mm equipment, from Amazon.com or K-Tel? The 300 mm thing is what was supposed to save AMAT 2 quarters ago. The issue is that companies are going for the design shrinks (and 200mm). 300mm has been pushed out but it will eventually come (Y2000?); as well we have the Cu thing. Yes AMAT is a sure bet l/t winner and I would start buying at 32 (say 10%), 29 (say another 15%) and so on. About the layoffs - they did so at $37. In between there have been lots of other layoffs from other companies. If I recall correctly there were also layoffs in Nov??? (maybe someone else). Very early on sometime in Feb when I soured on the semi-equips I said the time to be really happy is when AMAT uses some of their cash to buy other companies. We are a long way from that happening. Another indicator of course is the BTB. That needs to turn up. Until we see some definite sign of business improvement most of what will happen is n/t bounces. Of course n/t the stocks have been ridiculously oversold as well - so any change in sentiment and we go up for awhile. Even if someone like AMAT were to go up it should have to base for several months before it starts to take off seriously for the 50s. So I figure there is time. (on the other hand if we are in the fall and AMAT is not below say 29 I would say to heck with it and buy at whatever price I get at the time. the tricky thing with AMAT is that it is getting some kind of big-cap gorilla premium that I can't figure out and so it is difficult to see how things will pan out. I guess I have said 26 is the right price right now and 24 is the average low over this cycle (that is excluding those crazy 1 day bounces). So I have to stick with it around 24-26 is a reasonable average cost basis to have in AMAT for this cycle. If you do so by buying half at 29 and half at 21 or 25% at 30, 25% at 26, 25% at 24 and 25% at 20 or whatever other combination is not that important.) shane.