To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12589 ) 6/4/1998 8:37:00 AM From: Crimson Ghost Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116791
Cash is king! INTERVIEW-Asia crisis may yet hit US stocks -Hanke By Osman Senkul ISTANBUL, June 3 (Reuters) - Steve Hanke, a former adviser to former Indonesian President Suharto, said on Wednesday the full impact of the Asian crisis was yet to be felt and warned it could still hit U.S. stock and bond markets. Hanke urged investors to stay in cash and out of U.S. equities and emerging markets while financial uncertainty persists. ''The main impact from the Asian crisis has not been felt yet,'' he told Reuters in an interview. ''I think the next big victim will become the bond market and Wall Street, which will cause further problems in the emerging markets.'' The Johns Hopkins University professor said the crisis would disrupt trade between the United States and Asia, cutting U.S. exports and boosting its imports from the region. ''The combination of exporting less and importing more will put a squeeze on profits of American companies and lower their earnings,'' he said on the sidelines of a two-day conference on the Turkish economy in Istanbul. ''I think their earnings will come much lower than market analysts have forecast. I think (earnings growth) will be between zero and five percent.'' ''If interest rates in the U.S. remain roughly the same and earnings increases will range from zero to five percent, this means that price/earnings ratios on stocks have to adjust downward.'' He predicted emerging markets would suffer more pain if the turmoil spread to Wall Street. ''I think the Southeast Asia problem will continue, because we have only had the first round of the problems in the region. There will be continued volatility there.'' Hanke named Russia and Brazil as two major emerging markets with vulnerable exchange rate systems. ''If they continue their problems with their exchange rates, this will send a second shock through the emerging markets,'' he said. Hanke said he expected more market turmoil. ''So for the investor the main advice is in this kind of environment, cash is king.''