I agree there are people spreading false information. I guess they are smart if people will listen ( which some must be at this point) so that the can buy more stock at lower prices. Without false information and manufactured facts, there is no way this stock should be below $4.
Someone was nice enough to send me a private message and tell me that a person on Yahoo was posting negative stuff on CCUR under my SI name. That was the first time I even knew there was a Yahoo thread and it was painful to read some of the garbage (not all of it) that is posted there. I must admit, this stock is still controlled by trading activity of SOES bandits, day traders and those looking for 1/4's and 1/2's and from time to time, large investors accumulating while volume is high. The attraction here for investors over the past year has been limited downside of 2 plus and upside of 8 to 10. Hard to find this risk reward. If you hold for two years and sell your position at 10 with an average cost of 2.5 to 3, then you have a triple or quadruple or a double at 4, without undue risk (buying into a money losing company or biotech/tech startup).
Time will tell if bulls who have built big positions in CCUR are right. So far the story has been progressing better than I thought. Drop on low volume is more an opportunity for the small investor than for the institutional guys. If you own 2 million shares at an average cost of 2.25 to 2.75 or 3, there is not much stock to be had at these prices. Here is what it looks like, believe it or not.
A 100,000 share order would send this stock well over 4. Market maker sees order for 100,000, cleans up stock from other market makers between 3.50 and 3.75, fills 40,000 to 60,000 shares in pieces of 2,000-5,000 and some 10,000, SOES bandits try to pick off market makers as stock is rapidly rising and they create more volume with multiple executions to grab 1/16 to 1/8 (almost risk free), those on the fence (waiting to buy at 3.50 or less) or those waiting to buy back in for trade see the volume and upward movement. They buy fearing the stock is breaking out and they might not have a chance to buy it this low. Volume climbs faster as many investors believe that maybe there is some news coming out or a big investor is buying up the stock (the truth is the whole thing was started by a 100,000 share market order that could have been pieced together over a day or two without a big impact on the market and 100,000 shares is nothing for even the smallest hedge fund).
The stock continues to climb breaking 3 7/8 and suddenly the tech crowd declares a "BREAKOUT". Their charts and computers send out a buy signals saying momentum will carry the stock to over 4.50. They start buying the stock and help drive it through 4. In the meantime, the current handful of investors who have been building "new positions in the stock, take advantage of all the liquidity and take some blocks of 20,000 or 40,000 shares from market makers that normally they would have to buy in 2,000's or 5,000's (a real pain in the ass if you have to do a daily P & L).
Stock closes the day at 4 1/8 hitting 4.25 before backing off. Investors are excited, threads speculate as to what news may come out or who the buyers were. Next morning stock opens at 4.25 and rises, traders sense that stock will run out of momentum, they won't wait for 4.50 and take their 1/4 or 1/2 plus point profit. Stock begins to drop, it hits 4 and volume is no longer at the frenzied pace of yesterday. Non-trading investors feel they may have gotten over excited and bought to high (stock has backed up so many times that is not an irrational feeling). They sell part of their position fearing stock is heading back to 3.50 or below.
No news is announced or news is announced and stock had already reacted to it prior to the actual announcement, stock slides back to 3.50 on low volume. Sits there until some impatient investor puts in another 100,000 share market order and lights the fuse for this chain reaction to happen all over again. At one point, material news comes out and changes the trading range to a higher level and new investors buy in at higher prices with new support from sell side analysts who pick up the stock. Many investors sell their stock at prices they will not see again in the near future. Stock moves to 10 over a 6 month period with many dips like this shaking out weak hands and making money for traders who can enter and exit stock successfully.
This is a true story, although any similarities between those living or dead is strictly coincidental. What does all this mean? The answer is nothing! Relax. There is no sinister meaning behind every move. The stock has no real market maker support. Of the two firms that cover the stock, one is not a market maker and the other has little if any OTC clout. That will change this summer as will the way CCUR is viewed by small cap investors or tech investors. I can assure you that the cable industry's view has changed on CCUR (if they even knew who they were prior to Cable 98).
On Command, SFA, GI, Prasara, Time Warner, Mediaone, TCI are all staking the future of their companies or at least their future growth on the delivery and buildout of interactive digital systems. How would you feel as a shareholder or customer of one of these companies and they tell you that the backbone of their plans for the next decade is built by a company you never heard of, has never sold a digital server, has never been involved in your industry and was near bankruptcy in the early to mid 90's. CCUR is overcoming this hurdle as we speak and building a rep that will allow them to be a frontman, rather than the second announcement (behind Seachange or Mitsubishi). As that happens, Corky will gladly and I think successfully tell the CCUR story to Wall Street. Then my friends we will see 10. Many people on this thread know more than they post. That is why they get frustrated when they see lies, misinfortion, speculation, panic or impatience. Sorry about the length of my post, but the story needed to be told. Hope I gave some insight or a least a new viewpoint on the activity. Good luck. |
