From today's Investor's Business Daily. Free registration if you want to use the link....QuadK
Firms On Merced Delay:
Don't Worry, Be Happy
Date: 6/4/98
Author: Lisa Wirthman
Intel Corp.'s plans to delay its high-end
Merced chip may have little effect on
software makers, thanks to a well-timed
leap year and the fact that it comes at the
turn of the century.
The setback that was announced last week,
pushing Merced's release from late- '99 to
mid-'00, could have been bad news for
Microsoft Corp., Santa Cruz Operation Inc.
and Novell Inc. The three are building
64-bit operating systems - offering double
the processing speed of today's 32-bit
software - to run on machines built with
Merced chips.
But these companies believe there will be
few customers that planned on getting a
new system around the end of '99 anyway.
That means few clients will be angry over
any delays.
''The bottom line is that if this slip had to
occur, this is an incredibly fortuitous time
for it to happen,'' said Ed Muth, product
manager for enterprise computing at
Microsoft. ''It's the one time in all of
human history that you would not want to
be migrating on to new equipment.''
The change resulting from the year 2000 is
a ''double whammy'' for computer
systems, he says. First, there is the
problem that many computers only
recognize the last two digits of a year,
which could reset many systems back to
Jan. 1, 1900.
Second, 2000 is a leap year, but most
centennial years are not. Computers have
been told that through a complex series of
instructions. But whether the machines
actually acknowledge it on Feb. 29, 2000,
remains a question mark. (See related story,
this page.)
That's why many companies will be
reluctant to install new products - especially
software as critical to running a business as
a 64-bit operating system - during the end
of '99 and the beginning of '00, Muth says.
There still is a downside, analysts say. For
Intel-based systems, the Merced delay gives
Unix an advantage in the high-end market,
allowing it to maintain its dominant position
a little longer. But the timing of Intel's
delay -and the fact that it's only six months
- softens the blow, analysts agree.
''The year 2000 may cause many people to
defer their purchases,'' said Chris Le Tocq,
analyst at Dataquest Inc. in San Jose, Calif.
Intel and Hewlett- Packard Co. started
jointly developing 64-bit computer
architectures in '94. That led to Intel's
development of Merced, a chip designed for
high-powered workstations and servers.
Unix operating systems such as those from
HP and Sun Microsystems Inc. run
workstations and servers with powerful
RISC - or reduced instruction-set
computing - processors.
Intel's complex instruction-set computing,
or CISC processors - which have
traditionally powered smaller PCs - are
quickly catching up in performance. Intel's
64-bit Merced chip was expected to level
the playing field with a new standard called
explicitly parallel instruction computing, or
EPIC.
''It was going to take Intel into places
where they haven't been before,'' said
Mike Foster, director of server product
marketing at Santa Cruz, Calif.-based SCO.
That is evidenced by such Unix stalwarts as
Sun and HP, which are planning to create
versions of their powerful operating
software for systems built with Merced
chips.
Intel won't have the first 64-bit processor
on the market, but it's likely that Merced
will be the most important processor in
terms of popularizing 64-bit systems, says
Microsoft's Muth.
Microsoft's strategy always has been not to
release a 64-bit version of Windows NT
until after systems built with the Merced
chip become popular, Muth says. Microsoft
never planned to have a system ready in '99
anyway, he adds.
That's not the case for other software
makers.
Novell plans to have its 64-bit version of its
NetWare operating system, dubbed
Modesto, ready ''as soon as possible'' after
the release of Merced, said Bryan Cardoza,
the system's product manager.
And SCO plans to ship a 64-bit version of
its UnixWare operating system concurrent
with the release of Merced, says the
company's Foster.
Foster says the Merced delay will have a
positive impact for his company. SCO will
have an easier time creating software for the
Merced chip than other Unix companies
because its operating system already runs
on Intel hardware, he says.
Foster adds that the delay also gives SCO's
software built for computers with 32-bit
Intel chips more time to gain momentum.
What will also ease any ill effects of the
Merced delay is Intel's plan for a new
microprocessor called Xeon. That chip is
designed to add more power to 32-bit
systems.
SCO has already built support for Xeon
into its UnixWare 7 operating system,
which began shipping in March, Foster
says. Intel is expected to announce more
details about the chip later this month.
Novell also will support improvements in
Intel's Pentium chips, Cardoza says.
Microsoft will do the same, Muth says.
Before Microsoft releases a 64-bit version
of Windows NT, it will release NT 5.0
early next year, Muth adds, which will be
able to take advantage of 64-bit memory
sizes. That means the software will be able
to store much more recently used data in its
main memory instead of on the hard disk.
Full, 64-bit operating systems will mainly
be used for math and science calculations
and to power extremely large computing
systems, Muth says.
''They're larger than what most consumers
would need right now,'' he said.
And in the end, says Novell's Cardoza,
even if 64-bit operating systems do get
delayed, it's not the software makers
customers will blame.
''There will be some customers that
obviously will not be pleased,'' he said.
''But it's not Novell that they're not going
to be pleased with.''
(C) Copyright 1998 Investors Business
Daily, Inc.
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