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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (2998)	6/4/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 11051

DJ You had to ask now!! I have to leave for a few hours. When I return I'll try to fill out a fair response. Gersh

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (2998)	6/5/1998 5:06:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

DJ .. OK here goes. Three sections 1- TA 2- FA 3 FA of the stock TA Discussed before. You have heard it all before. Head and shoulders formation that points toward a price of ~$40. This is a multi year formation that is huge. One year ago if someone had told you that Intel would be at where it is now it would have sounded fantastic. This formation is within a market place that is topping (or at least looks that way to me). The rounded formation would lead into a bear market that would be very hard for bulls to trade. They would have about the same degree of success that the bears have had for the last few years. At this point the 5 day average for the S&P is up the 20, 30, 50 are down and the 200 is still up. I expect that when the 200 turns down several "wise" people will make the pronouncement that the bear market has arrived. The SOX has been hit hard and might pull up for the next few days. FA Intel, at this time, is trading at a historically high PE. This is not because of some great attraction but because of people willing to hold on in spite of a drop in earnings per share. The Merced being delayed is a drop in expected earnings lowering forward looking EPS. Institutions have been unloading Intel. Look at the link below the last table. Large blocks of stock have been being sold off for several weeks now. trading-ideas.com Virtualy every type of component that is used in computers have had a slowdown in sales during the last six to 8 weeks. The main component that I watch is RAM .. after all every computer that is built requires RAM. Hard drives, floppy drives, keyboards, RAM are all having a slowdown in sales. SDRAM for the 100MHz board has a limited number of factories that are producing modules. The price of these modules have been dropping hard and fast .. the last two weeks the 64MB module went from ~$140 each to below $100. The same pattern was in place in late Feb. At this time I wonder how much lower "slightly lower" will be. FA of the stock In contrast to the FA of the company the FA of the stock deals with supply/demmand issues. INTCW: For a year of longer Intel has been purchasing stock off of the market for the purpose of the conversion of INTCW. These shares of stock were released Mid March which has weakened INTC in the market. 78 million shares were released, of those only about 9 million have been repurchased off the street. Because of this glut of INTC stock on the market, the stock will not perform as well as the rest of the SOX if there is some small gain during the next few days. I'll stop there for now. I purchased my INTC puts last Thursday. Gersh