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Technology Stocks : Orbital Engine (OE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Howarth who wrote (1667)	6/4/1998 6:59:00 PM
From: Tom Reck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4908

I think you've said what I've been thinking too.

To: Bob Howarth who wrote (1667)	6/6/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: Sterling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4908

I also hope this year is going to mark the turnaround just as S&P is intimating. The past week was not too terrible in terms of price erosion relative to OE price history ; and measured on daily data, the last three trading days show up as slightly oversold with the week ending just about neutral in the usual daily momentum indicators I have cited before. In short, nothing decisive in terms of a price breakdown. My guess is that the early part of next week (6/8 - 6/12) will see a little buying support come in. That should further stabilize the price. Unfortunately, if I look at weekly consolidated data, OE has just dropped below its 30-week average which is a strong negative on the stock. [The price had dropped below the 30 day average around the end of April and has just continued to widen the gap further since then.] In order to reverse this trend, OE will have to close around $5/shr. for a few days. Although all of the price and volume activity shows that OE has been under distribution, I think we are near a short-term bottom. But it still looks like the price can go very close to $4/shr. What I am looking for here is a simultaneous weekly trend reversal in the "On Balance Volume" (OBV) line and the "Stochastic Oscillator" using weekly data. If that happens, we should have a very convincing bottom in place. The last time these two indicators flipped together, it was the first week in January this year, just after the terrible December price erosion. The bottom line as I read it is that we are approaching the technical bottom but are not there yet. Meanwhile, a single "good news" story will bring the price up immediately. There is another consideration here for potential sellers. If the general market indexes cannot hold the levels established this week, I think more pressure will begin to affect the more speculative stocks such as OE. So those of us who are long OE will need to brace ourselves for more stormy seas.