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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: M. Ramle who wrote (878)6/4/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: David Howe  Respond to of 10280
 
I agree that this pullback results from a fund that is unloading some shares. Who knows for what reason. IMO it has nothing to do with the fundamentals of SEPR.

As far as SEPR staying at this level for very long, that would be contrary to SEPR's past performance. With the exception of a "biotech bear market" in the 1995 to 1996 time frame, SEPR has never been beaten down and stayed there very long. On the contrary, it's recoveries are always very strong with the share price reaching or surpassing the old high within a couple of months. A summary of each significant pullbacks (20% - 40%) is as follows:

7/95 SEPR falls from 15 to 11 (27%) One month later SEPR hits 21.

10/95 SEPR falls from 22 to 14 (36%) One month later SEPR hits 21 again.

2/97 SEPR falls from 27 to 18 (33%) over a 3 month period. Two months later SEPR hits 27.

7/97 SEPR falls from 27 to 19 (29%) in one month. Two months later SEPR hits 39.

12/97 SEPR falls from 42 to 33 (21%) in 1 1/2 months. Three months later SEPR hits 47.

5/98 SEPR falls from 47 to 36 (23%) in 1 month. Three months later SEPR hits a price of .......?

Dave

The above summary excludes the biotech dryspell from '95 thru 96.

Note - I don't see another biotech dryspell in SEPR's future - for many reasons. I'm sure you know most of them (another topic for discussion).