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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Early Out who wrote (9190)6/4/1998 11:14:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
John,

I can't argue with anything you said--agree with all points.

I guess part of my problem is that I bought it as a value play thinking that a company with an approved product and unique delivery system would not be trading below its IPO four years ago.

I was looking for a 12 to 18 month play. Every product reaches its saturation point in the market. I could be wrong but I think their is still room for substantial growth if we include the entire world as the larger sandbox.

I also considered that our over 40 population is growing every year meaning that there will always be new patients produced with time.

Also, I thought that the 7 year patent on the delivery system was worth more than 6 5/16 a share.

With the latest concern regarding cardiac failure and Viagra I think many doctors with ED patients of vascular origin will be reluctant to prescribe Viagra (there are just too many liability issues involved).

If all the ED publicity makes the sandbox much bigger in the states and Viagra is avoided in many of the vascular patients, I think that the MUSE nitche will be greater than before Viagra was released.



To: Early Out who wrote (9190)6/4/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: g.w. barnard  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
john & vlad,

i too am concerned about earning this quarter and the impact on cash researves.

some food for thought.

1)we know scrips are down signficantly (faber says 70%)
2)according to leland gross margins can be expected lower this qtr.
3)in the latest 10q starup cost for new plant continue to impact revenues
4)we have a little over 3.8 mill cash left (heavey expenses associated with new plant)
5)additional expenses with the training of 200 new salemen which was expected to be completed by may of 1998. (i have put this at about 3mil since leland will not comment on it tell after earning are out).
6)increased direct marketing costs
7)capital expenses associated with the manufacturing facility in europe.
8)company anticipates the need for additional financing
9)so we have additional capital requirements with less capital to draw from, we have lower gross margins due to higher startup costs, we have decreased going forward earnings for at least this and the next qtr.
10)earnings which will i calculate at 25 to 45 cents a share loss.
11)mgmt setting on their &%$#@ and letting media eat us for lunch.

now for the brighter side:
1)we will get a smaller piece of the larger pie in ed field.
2)media blitz will grind down and hype pendlum will swing our way again.
3)international produce will continue to improve although with less margins.

all in all we are in for some tought times in the short run and for those who have the stomach possible a tremendous buying opportunity.

gw