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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Tesorero who wrote (8729)	6/5/1998 8:49:00 AM
From: Samuel R Orr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 11555

I couldn't restrain my urge to respond in a very light-hearted manner to your comment that DELL's stock price will double before IDTI's does. You may be right, but I'll bet a coca cola on it. My most recent take on DELL was that the company was not going to pursue any PC's selling under $1500, and that DELL was the only large PC maker that insisted it would use only Intel processors. In my view, DELL is going to ignore half the PC market and use the most expensive processor known to mankind. If they don't soon change that strategy, I'll take my coke from you within two years. Beyond that, the semiconductor market has seen better times before and will see better times again. IDTI is awfully cheap right now if one makes the minor assumption they aren't going belly-up. I couldn't resist buying some more yesterday under eight bucks. We'll see how well it works out over time. Other than that, I have really enjoyed Jackson's mythological references and poetry, Fugazi's prediction that the right price for IDTI was five bucks, and think Rob would make a super director. Let's hope he and the TA(technical analysis?) people are right about the dead cat bounce. Charlie Tuna's comment that the X86 market has been changing awfully fast is very perceptive, and I think the vast number of Intel fans and positive analysts will soon be choking on modest earnings. Intel looks like a good short to me, as does DELL, but one never wins when betting against popular opinion or the Fed. Like every other management, IDTI's has made mistakes, but in my working years I screwed up, too, and have more than a little sympathy with anyone trying to make an honest dollar in the semiconductor industry. Long ago, I knew Len Perham when he was a young engineer. He was very good, quite aggressive, bright, and had a rational ego. I also thought he was honest about his own work, and still think him honest. Best of luck out there, and don't panic quite yet.

To: David Tesorero who wrote (8729)	6/5/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 11555

Several months ago, when IDTI was much higher and still moving up, some posters on the thread labeled me a "trader" of IDTI - as if to say that trading the stock was stupid and that if I had any "faith" in the company and it's prospects that I should buy and hold it. I pointed out that however good the prospects looked at the time that they were yet unproven and that a number of things could happen to upset the bright outlook. Several analysts had 12 month targets of 20 and at least one had a target of around 30. When the stock was at 16, a buy-and-hold strategy seemed to make sense. If those "longs" had instead bought the stock when it was around 9-10 and sold when it was at 13-15 the returns would have beaten most other growth stocks. Reaping the "heart of the move" between 10 and 13-14 would have returned over 100% appreciation during the past two years while limiting the risk because you would have been in the stock only about 50% of the time. IDTI has been a "trading stock" and still is, IMO. It will remain a trading stock until the company can demonstrate that it can follow through on its plans consistently. I think that for the gutsy, IDTI is now a trading buy. The TA has not confirmed strong buy signals yet but the indicators have pinged the limits - they will turn up from the extreme, the question is when. Even if based on IDTI's "typical" overall lack of execution, the stock will likely trade up from here. It may dip down further, but by early fall my bet it that it will be up at least 20% from where it is now. There are safer stocks to invest in. I'd love to see some renewed insider buying or clear signs that they can produce quantities of the new WinChip 2, but until then I will trade IDTI carefully. I can't blame anyone for ditching out of IDTI and moving on to stocks with a more reliable tract record and in which management has a better grasp of their operations and the markets they are targeting. Just be aware that when so many are jumping ship that the pendulum may have swung to its extreme. IDTI does violate one of the cardinal rules of investing - you should be able to trust management for 1] knowing how to run the business, and 2] keeping you up to date with what the situation is. IDTI has recently failed to do either very well.