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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (5698)	6/5/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

Nice analysis. I do a lot of that sort of thing. One point about timing is the dates on which the cycle has shifted over the past few years. (If anyone knows anything about flying, this is like a Dutch roll. It starts slow and if not controlled properly, the swings keep getting more pronounced.) Anyway, looking at companies that had a major presence over the past 5 years. the cycle hits its minima and maxima sometime between late June and late August. For instance, Lam hit a high in Sept. '93, a low in June '94, a high in July-Aug. '95, a low in July 96, and a high in Aug. '97. AMAT is almost identical, although it is hard to see the cycle in 93 and 94 for both of them. So -- if you think history is repeating itself here, you'd load up in early July and plan to sell in maybe August '99. I'll tell you though, even though I'm buying right now, I'm now worried about Taiwan and might nibble rather than chowing down